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中泰证券:四季度仔猪进一步下跌预期下 能繁母猪产能有望加速去化

Zhongtai Securities: Piglets fell further in the fourth quarter, and the production capacity of sows is expected to accelerate the elimination of sows

Zhitong Finance ·  10/16/2023 14:59

Zhitong Financial APP learned that Zhongtai Securities released a research report saying that during the National Day holiday period, pig prices are not prosperous in the peak season, and post-holiday consumption is depressed, and the slaughtering quantity is not as good as that before the festival, based on this, the industry side is further pessimistic about the late pig price. at present, part of the group pig enterprise 6kg weaning pig price has fallen to 140150 yuan / head. The bank believes that piglet prices are expected to fall further from November to December, and the loss is further expanded. At present, piglet prices are already at an all-time low, and under the expectation of further decline in piglets in the fourth quarter, the production capacity of breeding sows is expected to accelerate. The share price of pig plate is already at a low level, and it is optimistic that the acceleration of capacity removal will lead to the start of pig plate market.

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The main points of Zhongtai Securities are as follows:

How to treat the relationship between piglet price and pig price?

Piglet prices basically rise and fall with live pig prices in the general trend, but occasionally there will be a short-term deviation between them, especially since 2023, the two trends are either different, or although the trend is the same, but the degree of prosperity is very different. What are the main reasons for the deviation between piglet prices and live pig prices? One is seasonality, the other is the change of industrial structure. Due to the seasonality of pig prices, generally speaking, pig prices rise seasonally from July to August and from October to January of the following year, while February to May after the year is the off-season of pork consumption, during which pig prices are low. The time from piglets to live pigs is about 5 months, so the enthusiasm of piglets from February to March and May to August is better than that from September to December, and the price of piglets from February to August is better than that from September to December. Structurally, at present, the main body of piglets is large-scale farms, not retail investors, so the price of piglets is to some extent related to the fencing plan of scale groups.

How to treat the price of piglets in the later stage?

Piglet prices performed better from January to May this year, due to less recovery of sow production capacity last year, so the industry still had certain expectations for pig prices in the peak season in the second half of this year from January to May. With the decline in pig prices during the May Day holiday, the industry revised its expectations for pig prices in the second half of the year, so piglet prices began to fall rapidly in late May. During the National Day holiday this year, pig prices are not prosperous in the peak season, and post-holiday consumption is depressed, and the slaughtering quantity is not as good as that before the festival. based on this, the industry side is further pessimistic about the late pig price. at present, part of the group pig enterprise 6kg weaning pig price has fallen to 140150 yuan per head. The bank believes that piglet prices are expected to fall further from November to December, and the loss will be further expanded.

How to treat the speed of degeneration of sows in the later stage?

Reviewing the relationship between pig price and capacity de-production of sows since 2016, we can see that the speed of de-production of sows is highly related to the prices of live pigs and piglets, and there are some rules among them: 1) when self-reproducing pigs lose money, there will be de-production of self-reproducing sows. 2) during the period of capacity removal, the de-production speed of fertile sows is highly related to the trend of pig prices, that is, when pig prices rebound, the de-degradation of sows slows down, and vice versa; 3) after 2021, when the trend of piglet prices deviates from that of live pigs, there is a higher correlation between the degeneration speed of fertile sows and the trend of piglet prices. The bank believes that the reason may be that with the listing of pig futures and the acceleration of the flow of industrial information, the industry's expectations for future pig prices will no longer fully follow the current pig prices, and piglet prices can better reflect the industry's expected changes in future pig prices, so that even if pig prices rise seasonally in the short term, it will not affect the speed of degeneration of sows. At present, piglet prices are already at an all-time low, and under the expectation of further decline in piglets in the fourth quarter, the production capacity of breeding sows is expected to accelerate.

Risk Tips:The risk of incorrect prediction of pig prices; the risk of pig disease; the risk of substantial fluctuations in raw material prices; the risk of third-party data distortion; and the risk that the public data used in research reports may lag behind or not be updated in a timely manner.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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