In the first three quarters of 2023, the net profit of homing is expected to increase by 86-102% compared with the same period last year, and the performance is expected to exceed expectations 1) performance forecast for the first three quarters of 2023: operating income is expected to reach 17-1.8 billion yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 159%-174% over the same period last year; it is expected to achieve net profit of 2.3-250 million yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 86%-102% over the same period last year. It is estimated that the net profit of deducting non-return in the first three quarters is 2.10-230 million yuan, an increase of 79 percent over the same period last year.
2) the third quarter of 2023: according to the performance forecast, the company is expected to achieve operating income of 7.3-830 million yuan in the third quarter, an increase of 187%, 227% and 10%, 25%, respectively. The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.0% to 120 million yuan in the third quarter, an increase of 90%, 129% and 14%, respectively. The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 0.9-110 million yuan, an increase of 89%, 131%, and 10%, 35% over the same period last year.
3) the synergy effect of quartz crucible and carbon-carbon thermal field business appeared, and the expansion of photovoltaic new energy business led the company's performance to exceed expectations.
Rail brake pad leader: railway passenger volume has warmed up, powder metallurgy brake pad new products continue to break through the company is the high-speed train brake pad domestic alternative leader, the market share for many years to maintain the first. According to statistics from the State Railway Administration, the number of railway passengers transported nationwide from January to June 2023 was 1.77 billion, an increase of 125 percent over the same period last year and close to the level of the same period in 2019. The company's new products continue to win customer recognition: the third-generation upgraded powder metallurgy brake disc TS399B with longer life has passed the CRCC certification; the TS699G powder metallurgy brake disc suitable for power concentrated EMU has obtained the CRCC trial certificate; and the TS759 powder metallurgy brake disc suitable for 400km / h high-speed trains has been tested by high-speed test cars.
Photovoltaic plate: carbon-carbon thermal field + quartz crucible strategy coordinated development, photovoltaic new materials field towards the head (1) carbon-carbon thermal field accelerates to replace graphite thermal field with the development of large-size silicon wafers, benefiting from the rapid growth of global photovoltaic installed capacity, the steady increase in demand for silicon wafers is expected to lead to a steady growth in the demand for carbon-carbon thermal field components. The company has achieved complete self-made preform, with the ability of near-net forming of preform, multi-position and multi-point intelligent acupuncture, continuous orthopedic curing, preparation of super-large shaped parts, which greatly improves material utilization and production efficiency.
(2) benefiting from the strong demand downstream, the supply and demand of raw material high purity quartz sand continues to maintain a tight balance, the trend of large size of silicon wafer is obvious, and quartz crucible has maintained a good development momentum in recent years. Xin Liyang, a subsidiary, has completed the construction of two production lines in Xuzhou and fully put into production, the construction of 20 quartz crucible production lines in Jiangyou has been steadily advanced, the transformation plan of the fully automatic production line has been continuously refined, and some key processes have entered the verification stage.
Xinneng car plate: the development of high-end products is smooth. It is expected that the carbon ceramic brake disc of the first mass-produced model has the advantages of lightweight, high temperature resistance, thermal recession resistance, strong environmental adaptability and low wear rate, and its performance is better than that of traditional steel brake disc. adapt to the trend of automobile electrification, lightweight and intelligence.
The company continues to innovate in the key processes such as prefabrication of carbon ceramic brake disc, chemical vapor deposition densification and reactive melt siliconizing, and has completed the development of new products of ceramic coated carbon ceramic brake disc.
Profit forecast and valuation: green energy new material platform company, rail interchange, photovoltaic, Xinneng car multi-point blossom is expected to return to the home net profit of 3.59 billion yuan in 2023-2025, an increase of 117%, 52%, 39%, corresponding to PE 25-17-12, maintaining the "buy" rating.
The risk indicates that the competition pattern of photovoltaic thermal field is deteriorating and the progress of automobile carbon ceramic brake disc is lower than expected.