The company's 1H23 realized an income of 8.9 billion yuan, an increase of 38.7% over the same period last year; the net profit returned to its mother was 470 million yuan, which was a turnround to profit over the same period in 2022; and the diluted EPS was 0.38 yuan.
The total revenue of 1H23 was 8.9 billion yuan, an increase of 38.7% over the same period last year. The company's 1H23 revenue was 8.9 billion yuan, an increase of 38.7% over the same period last year. 1H23 gross profit margin is 34.6%, an increase of 5.1pct over the same period last year. 1H23 returned to its mother with a net profit of 470 million yuan, turning from a loss to a profit compared with the same period last year, of which other income and net income were 380 million yuan (280 million yuan from the disposal of resorts and after-sale leases of Club Med resorts, 50 million yuan from the disposal of Casa Cook and Cook's Club hotels, and 70 million yuan from net exchange). The net interest rate of 1H23 is 5.3%, an increase of 8.4pct over the same period last year.
Turnover of 1H23Club Med and other businesses increased by 48.2% over the same period in 2019. ① Club Med and others: 1H23's revenue was 7.51 billion yuan, an increase of 33.8% over the same period last year, and turnover increased by 19.6% over the same period in 2019.
1H23 Club Med capacity increased by 13.4% year-on-year to 99.2% in the same period in 19 years. The global average occupancy rate of 1H23 is about 62.4%, an increase of 3.3pctPermy 1753.3 yuan over the same period last year, which is about 10.6% and 32.2% higher than that of 1H22 and 1H19 respectively. 1H23 gross profit margin was 31.5%, an increase of 3.5pct over the same period last year, mainly due to revenue recovery and improved operating efficiency. ② Atlantis: the income of 1H23 Sanya Atlantis is 940 million yuan, an increase of 84.5% over the same period last year. 40.1pct 2408.3 yuan, the average occupancy rate is 86.2%, an increase of ADR over the same period last year. ③ Holiday Asset Management Center: 1H23 income was 390 million yuan, up 72.2% over the same period last year, of which the turnover of Lijiang project was 40 million yuan, up 122.5% over the same period last year, and the number of visitors was 64000, an increase of 39.1% over the same period last year. Taicang project 1H23 property sales recognized income of 350 million yuan. ④ return visit: 1H23 turnover was 180 million yuan, an increase of 11.5% over the same period last year. As of June 30, 2023, the resurrection platform had more than 6.13 million members, an increase of 17.1% over the same period last year, of which 56000 households paid fees, an increase of 13.6% over the same period last year.
Continuous repair during the summer. ① Club Med: as of August 6, 2023, 2H23 cumulative bookings (based on turnover of accommodation, travel and services at the same exchange rate) increased by 6% year-on-year, increased by about 21% compared with the same period in 2019, increased by about 27% compared with the same period in 2019, and increased by about 54% over the same period in 2022. ② Atlantis: the turnover in July 2023 was 190 million yuan, down 10.8% from the same period last year, and the average occupancy rate was 88.3%. Compared with the surge in individual market consumption in Sanya under the influence of the epidemic in the same period in 2022, and the partial recovery of outbound travel in the summer of 2023, Atlantis still had a strong performance.
The expense rate during 1H23 is less 2.6pct than the same period last year. The cost during the 1H23 period is 2.77 billion, with an expense rate of 31.1%, which is reduced by 2.6pct compared with the same period last year. ① sales and marketing expenses 1.2 billion, expense rate 13.5%, reduced 1.7pct compared with the same period last year. The general and administrative expenses of ② are 910 million, and the expense rate is 10.2%, which is reduced by 0.7pct compared with the same period last year. The financial cost of ③ is 660 million, and the expense rate is 7.4%, which is a decrease of 0.1pct compared with the same period last year. We judge that the main reason is that the company's revenue is restored and the expenses are diluted.
The combination is continuously optimized. ① strategic focus: the Group's business is redivided into four sectors: "Club Med and others", "Sanya Atlantis", "Holiday Asset Management Center" and "return to visit and related business". ② Resort:
2H23 plans to open four new resorts, including Xianlin Resort and Taicang Resort in China, Kiroro Grand Resort in Hokkaido, Japan and La Rosi è reExclusive Collection Suite Resort in France. The company expects capacity to increase by more than 20% over 2022 for the year up to 2025. ③ Holiday Asset Management Center: the company's Taicang international resort "Alpine Snow World", Mediterranean Day Ark Taicang Resort and theme shopping street "Alpine Lights" will be officially unveiled in 4Q23, and the rest will be completed in the next 2-3 years.
Profit forecast and valuation: the company's revenue in 2023-25 is expected to be 172.2 yuan, 194.7 yuan and 21.48 billion yuan respectively (the original revenue forecast in 2023-24 is 169.10 yuan and 20.022 billion yuan), an increase of 25.0%, 13.1% and 10.3% respectively over the same period last year. It is estimated that the net profit of the company in 2023-25 is 4.7,6.4 and 890 million yuan respectively (the original forecast for 2023-24 is 3.65 yuan and 767 million yuan), which is 186.2%, 35.3% and 40.6% respectively compared with the same period last year; the corresponding EPS is 0.38,0.51,0.72 yuan respectively (0.29,0.62 yuan originally predicted in 2023-24). Combined with the valuation of the comparable company, the 23-year 27 times PE,6 EV/EBITDA is given at a reasonable price of 11.90 yuan, with a corresponding target price of HK $12.50 (calculated at HK $1 = RMB 0.9169) (the original target price is RMB14.52, HK $1 = 0.8819 RMB is HK $16.46, corresponding to 23 years'45 times PE,7 times EV/EBITDA,-24%), maintaining a "better than the market" rating.
Risk hint: competition aggravates risk, exchange rate fluctuation risk, real estate sales lower than expected risk.