Source: Zhitong Finance App

Wegovy, the “magic medicine for weight loss,” is in high demand.$Novo-Nordisk A/S (NVO.US)$The full-year performance guidelines have been raised once again. On October 13, the company raised its annual revenue growth forecast from 27-33% to 32%-38%, and raised its profit before tax (EBIT) growth forecast to 40-46% from the previous 31-37%. J.P. Morgan expects the price of GLP-1 to drop gradually as supply and access channels improve. Currently, it costs 15,000 US dollars to buy a one-month dose of smeglutide. By the end of 2030, the price of GLP-1 will drop to 325 to 350 US dollars per course of treatment, and it will only cost 4,000 US dollars per year.

It is worth mentioning that this adjustment is the third time this year that Novo Nordisk has adjusted its business expectations. On April 13, the company's revenue growth was raised from 13-19% to 24-30%, and profit growth was raised from 13-19% to 28-34%. On August 10, the company's revenue growth increased to 27-33%, and profit growth increased by 31-37%.

Novo Nordisk recently stated that the clinical trial results of the GLP-1 drug simeglutide in the treatment of kidney failure and chronic kidney disease are ideal. Furthermore, pharmaceutical companies and academics continue to make announcements,The therapeutic effects of GLP-1 drugs in the fields of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NASH), cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, Alzheimer's disease, and alcohol addiction are being explored.

J.P. Morgan expects GLP-1 drugs to be one of the best-selling drugs in history, with annual sales of 100 billion US dollars by 2030.

According to Frost & Sullivan data, it is estimated that by 2030, there will be 329 million obese people in China. At the same time, domestic applications of GLP-1 in diabetes and obesity are in the early stages of development, and there is great potential for improvement.

According to reports,$Eli Lilly and Co (LLY.US)$There is a fierce competition with Novo Nordisk in the GLP-1 diet pill market. However, there are currently only two GLP-1 weight loss drugs approved for weight loss in China. Each comes from$Huadong Medicine (000963.SZ)$, Renhui Biology.

Specifically, in terms of product progress of GLP-1 drugs used for weight loss indications,The first tier, East China Pharmaceutical, is the most likely to take the lead in commercialization, followed by Renhui Biotech, whose products have already been approved and will soon be marketed; the second tier is Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, all of which have submitted for approval, and will be listed after approval; the third tier$Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (600276.SH)$Companies such as Xianweida, and Fosun Pharmaceutical are currently still a long way from commercializing pharmaceuticals.

In terms of the secondary market, since September, A-share concept stocks of diet drugs involving GLP-1 drugs have been booming.$Hebei Changshan Biochemical Pharmaceutical (300255.SZ)$, Borui Pharmaceutical,$Hybio Pharmaceutical (300199.SZ)$The increase was highest, with increases of 263.3%, 94.88%, and 85.81%, respectively.

10/13,$Brightgene Bio-Medical Technology Co.,Ltd. (688166.SH)$The stock price rose 20%. According to market sources on the same day, Yuan Jiandong, chairman of Borui Pharmaceutical, stated in an investor conference call on October 12 that his body weight dropped from 91 kg to 76 kg after personally testing the drug (BGM0504 injection). The company responded that the BGM0504 injection, a polypeptide hypoglycemic drug developed independently by the company, is still in the development stage, and that the two indications for weight loss and type 2 diabetes treatment have only obtained ethical approval for phase II clinical trials.

Fangzheng Securities said that global sales of innovative GLP-1 drugs have greatly exceeded expectations. It shows the broad market potential of next-generation diet drugs. The reason for this is mainly because GLP-1 polypeptide drugs have achieved excellent blood sugar control and weight loss effects under the premise of reliable safety. It is expected that popular drugs will continue to appear in this field in the future. The peptide industry is developing rapidly, and the industrial chain is expected to benefit greatly.

Guosheng Securities said that there are four perspectives on weight loss drug stock selection: first, making money in the global market.$WUXI APPTEC (02359.HK)$,$ASYMCHEM (06821.HK)$, Haofan;Second, to earn money from the domestic market,$INNOVENT BIO (01801.HK)$, East China,$LIVZON PHARMA (01513.HK)$,$SIRNAOMICS-B (02257.HK)$, Nortech, Hanyu;The third target is novel, and there will be repeated hype about clinical catalysis in the future.$UNITED LAB (03933.HK)$, Borui, Zhongsheng, Xinlitai;The fourth industrial chain may be added,Beautiful Healthcare, Hualan Co., Ltd., Maide Healthcare.

Related concept stocks:

$FOSUN PHARMA (02196.HK)$: Wanbang Biochemical, a subsidiary of Fosun Pharmaceutical$Imeik Technology Development (300896.SZ)$Subsidiaries, Novotel Biotech, have deployed liraglutide injection diet medicine generic drugs. The projects are in phase III and phase I clinical stages, respectively.

$INNOVENT BIO (01801.HK)$: In May of this year, Cinda Biotech announced that a high dose of 9 mg of mastodopeptide was achieved at the end of the 24-week study in phase II clinical studies of obese subjects in China. According to clinical phase 2 data, after 24 weeks of using the mastoduleptide 9mg group, the average weight loss percentage could reach 15.4%, and the weight loss was 14.7 kg.

$UNITED LAB (03933.HK)$: On April 19, its wholly-owned subsidiary, Federal Biotech Company, received a drug clinical trial approval notice from the State Drug Administration of China regarding heavy management indications of smeglutide injection liquid.