Event: the company issued a forecast of results for the first three quarters of 2023, which is expected to achieve operating income of 17-1.8 billion yuan, year-on-year + 159% copyright 174.24%, and expected return net profit of 2.3-250 million yuan, compared with the same period last year. + 85.65% color 101.8%. Q3 alone achieved operating income of 7.30-830 million yuan, year-on-year + 187.2% muri 226.7%, net profit of 1.0-120 million yuan, and + 90.4% muri 129.1%.
Carbon-carbon thermal field: the price of carbon-carbon thermal field has rebounded recently, with an increase of about 10-15%, bottoming out and doubling profits. The price increase is mainly due to the fact that the price of the hot field has been continuously lower than the cost line of second-and third-tier manufacturers, the operating rate has been below 20% for a long time, and the new production capacity of superimposed silicon wafers has been put into production, and the demand is strong. The company relies on the advantage of scale and cost to further optimize, we expect the company to ship 900 tons in the third quarter, and is expected to achieve full-caliber cost of 200000 / ton by the end of the year. After this price increase, the profit is expected to remain at 40-50,000 / ton, and the company's market share is expected to further increase.
Quartz crucible: photovoltaic installed high boom continues to drive the growth of quartz crucible demand, superimposed upstream high-purity quartz sand supply is tight. We expect the company to ship 15000 quartz crucibles in the third quarter, with a target shipment of 60,000 to 80,000 quartz crucibles in 2023, of which the 36-inch crucible has a production capacity of 70%. At present, downstream customers have covered the domestic mainstream crystal pulling manufacturers, forming a synergistic trend with the carbon and carbon thermal field.
Carbon ceramic brake disc: based on the prospective layout of carbon ceramic materials, the company is determined to increase the production capacity of carbon ceramic. At present, the company has been qualified as a designated supplier of carbon ceramic brake disc in many new energy vehicle companies, covering more than 20 models. 2023 is expected to be the first year of carbon ceramic brake disc release.
Lithium negative electrode thermal field: the company extends to the field of lithium negative electrode thermal field material layout, and the sagger products have been tried out downstream. Carbon-carbon materials can achieve thinner wall thickness and increase loading by more than 10%, and graphite is expected to be replaced in the field of lithium anode materials. We estimate that the total market demand for lithium negative electrode thermal field will reach 6, 10 and 150000 tons respectively in 23-25 years, and carbon-carbon materials will be rebuilt to replace the market space.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the net return of 2023 2024 PE in 2025 will be RMB 498 million, corresponding to 20.0 pound in 2023-2025, and the net return in 2025 will be 11.1 pound 9.1x. Carbon-carbon thermal field, quartz crucible, carbon ceramic disc and lithium negative electrode thermal field business are expected to open up the company's growth space and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk hint: photovoltaic installation is not as expected; carbon ceramic infiltration is not as expected; new capacity progress is not as expected.