Main points of investment
The company was founded in 1999 and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2000. It is known as "the first share of China Laser". In 2021, the company implemented the school-enterprise restructuring, and the actual controller was changed from Huazhong University of Science and Technology to Wuhan SASAC. The company focuses on the three major businesses of connection, intelligent manufacturing and perception, focusing on the layout of digital enabling and new energy vehicle industry chain. In the future, with the rapid growth of AI and the continuous expansion of new energy vehicles, the company is expected to achieve long-term high growth.
Connection business: AI gives birth to the demand for computing power, and the optical module meets the development opportunity. Under the background of the rapid development of AI, the high demand for computing power will drive the growth of the data center scale, and the optical module will meet the development opportunity. The size of China's optical module market is expected to grow to 59.93 billion yuan in 2024, and CAGR will be about 10.7% in 2022-2024. The company has the ability to vertically integrate a full range of products from chips to devices, modules and subsystems, and optical module products expand from traditional wireless transmission (below 100G) to data centers. In 2022, the company ranks eighth in the global optical module manufacturers, while actively exploring the North American market, the performance is expected to meet the new growth.
Intelligent manufacturing business: the market for laser processing equipment is nearly 100 billion yuan, and the sales revenue of China's laser equipment industry driven by new energy and semiconductors is 9.7% in 2018-2022 and is expected to reach 99.4 billion yuan in 2023. The company actively promotes the layout of new energy and semiconductors. In the field of semiconductors, the company launched the first domestic high-end wafer laser cutting equipment, conquering a number of first in China, and promoting domestic substitution. In the field of new energy, the company leads the industry in the market share of body-in-white welding of new energy vehicles and three-dimensional five-axis products. With the expansion of laser equipment market in the field of new energy and semiconductors, the company's market share is expected to increase.
Perceptual business: new energy vehicles drive PTC demand, industry leader to expand capacity PTC heater as a key technology of thermal management in the field of new energy vehicles, not only escort the battery, but also play an important role in the cockpit heating system. The CAGR of China's PTC market is 24.71% in 2021-2025, and is expected to reach 20.95 billion yuan in 2025. The company has successfully promoted the localization of PTC heaters for new energy vehicles, with a domestic market share of 60%. The industrialization base of the company's new energy vehicle thermal management system is expected to be put into production in June, the output value will increase by 3 billion yuan, and the market share is expected to increase again. With the rising sales of new energy vehicles, the potential of the PTC market is gradually released, and the company's performance is expected to achieve high growth.
Profit forecast and valuation
We estimate that the company's revenue from 2023 to 2025 will be 120.6114502 million yuan, an increase of 0.42% 20.24% and 18.78% respectively over the same period last year. It is estimated that the net profit from 2023 to 2025 will be 1.594 billion yuan, respectively, and the year-on-year growth rate will be 14.05% 28.49% 20.04%. The corresponding EPS is 1.03 shock 1.32 pound 1.59 yuan, and the corresponding PE is 32-25-21 times. The company's connected business expanded rapidly, smart manufacturing business and perceptual business maintained growth, giving a "buy" rating for the first time.
Risk hint
The business expansion of optical module is not as expected; the construction of 5G base station is not as expected; the permeability of new energy vehicles is not as expected.