Q-TECH(1478.HK):EXPECT BETTER CLIENT DEMAND IN 2H;HIGH-END CCM TO DRIVE ASP/GPM UPSIDE
Q-TECH(1478.HK):EXPECT BETTER CLIENT DEMAND IN 2H;HIGH-END CCM TO DRIVE ASP/GPM UPSIDE
While 1H23 result is slightly below profit warning earlier due to FX/fair value changes, mgmt. guided stronger-than-expected client demand and better shipment mix in 2H23E. Despite slower 1H23 revenue, we are encouraged to see 32M+ CCM mix of 37.1% above guidance (35%+) and non-smartphone CCM shipment (e.g. auto) of 64% YoY (vs guidance 50%+ YoY). Looking forward, we expect 2H shipment/earnings recovery backed by inventory restocking and spec upgrade (OIS/Periscope), improving UTR and alleviating competition. Trading at 9.2x/5.6x FY23/24E P/E, we think the stock is attractive. Maintain BUY with new TP of HK$3.60, based on 10x FY23E P/E.
儘管由於外匯/公允價值的變化，上半年的業績略低於早些時候的盈利警告，但mgmt. 在 2H23E 中，客戶需求強於預期，出貨組合也有所改善。儘管上半年收入放緩，但我們感到鼓舞的是，超過3200萬的CCM組合比預期高出37.1％（35％以上），非智能手機CCM出貨量（例如汽車）同比增長64％（而預期的同比增長50％以上）。展望未來，在庫存補貨和規格升級（OIS/PerisCope）、改善UTR和緩解競爭的支持下，我們預計下半年出貨量/收益將恢復。我們認爲該股的交易價格爲9.2倍/5.6倍，我們認爲該股具有吸引力。維持買入，新目標價爲3.60港元，基於 FY23E 市盈率的10倍。
1H23 results slightly below; Higher 32M+ mix and auto CCM the bright spots. 1H revenue decline of 22.8% YoY was 5%/8% below our/consensus estimates, but 32M+ CCM shipment mix increased 8.9ppts/5.3ppts YoY/QoQ to 37.1%, above prior guidance of 35, reflecting Q-Tech's competitiveness in high-end CCM market. As for non-smartphone CCM, shipment climbed 64.3% YoY, above prior guidance (50%+ YoY) thanks to stronger auto CCM (100%+ YoY), better customer base and product mix. GPM declined 1.9ppts YoY to 3.4% due to smartphone weakness, fierce competition, falling UTR and unfavourable FX. NP dropped 86.9% YoY on revenue/GPM decline.
上半年的業績略低於預期；3200萬+的汽車CCM是亮點。上半年收入同比下降22.8％，比我們的共識預期低5％/8％，但超過3200萬的CCM出貨量同比增長8.9ppts/5.3ppts至37.1％，高於之前的35％，這反映了Q-Tech在高端CCM市場的競爭力。至於非智能手機CCM，出貨量同比增長64.3％，高於之前的預期（同比增長50％以上），這要歸功於汽車CCM（同比增長100％以上）、更好的客戶群和產品組合。由於智能手機疲軟、競爭激烈、UTR下降以及外匯不利，GPM同比下降1.9個百分點至3.4％。由於收入/GPM下降，NP同比下降86.9％。
Bullish guidance on 2H23E recovery; better sales mix, spec upgrade, improving UTR and easing competition. We believe the worst is over for Chinese smartphone market and Android smartphone restocking is well under way driven by product launches in 3Q23E. Mgmt. guided better 2H23E shipment than 1H, and revised up FY23E 32M+ CCM shipment mix to 40%+ (vs. prior 35%+). In addition, Q-tech remains positive on spec upgrade on OIS and periscope, driving ASP upside in 2H23E/2024.
2H23E 復甦的看漲指引；更好的銷售組合、規格升級、UTR 改善和緩解競爭。我們認爲，中國智能手機市場最糟糕的時期已經過去，在 3Q23E 產品發佈的推動下，Android 智能手機的補貨正在順利進行。Mgmt. 引導的 2H23E 出貨量比 1 月好，並將 FY23E 3200萬+ CCM 的出貨量組合上調至 40% +（之前爲 35% 以上）。此外，Q-tech對OIS和periscope的規格升級仍然持樂觀態度，推動ASP在2024年下半年上漲。
Non-smartphone CCM growth to accelerate. Mgmt. guided strong auto CCM growth driven by top NEV customers and domestic Tier-1 customers' product volume production in 2H23E. ARVR products' mass production for major customer Pico is well on track. In addition, we are also positive on IoT products including DJI drone, smart watch and sweeping robots. Overall, we expect non-smartphone CCM shipment to grow 100% YoY in 2H23E.
非智能手機CCM增長將加速。在 2H23E 中，在頂級新能源汽車客戶和國內一級客戶產品量產的推動下，Mgmt. 推動了汽車 CCM 的強勁增長。ARVR 產品面向主要客戶 Pico 的批量生產已步入正軌。此外，我們還對物聯網產品持樂觀態度，包括大疆無人機、智能手錶和掃地機器人。總體而言，我們預計 2H23E 非智能手機 CCM 的出貨量將同比增長 100%。
1H23 weakness priced in; Maintain BUY with new TP of HK$3.60. We believe 1H23 weakness has already priced in, and Q-tech is set to benefit from Android inventory restocking and spec upgrade in 2H23E. The stock is currently trading at 9.2x/5.6x FY23/24E P/E (close to 1-sd below 10-year avg. fwd. P/E), which looks attractive. Maintain BUY with new TP of HK$3.60.
定價爲23年上半年疲軟；維持買入，新目標價爲3.60港元。我們認爲 1H23 的疲軟已經被考慮在內，Q-tech 將受益於 2H23E 中的 Android 庫存補貨和規格升級。該股目前的交易價格爲23/24財年市盈率的9.2倍/5.6倍（比10年期平均市盈率低近1秒）。P/E），看起來很有吸引力。維持買入，新目標價爲3.60港元。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。