Deep ploughing the field of new materials, broad room for growth, the company focuses on the R & D and production of new materials. The company's main business is polyetheramine, optical grade polymer materials, high light transmittance materials, mainly used in wind power blades, shale gas mining, automotive coatings, optical lenses and other fields, in which the output of polyetheramine ranks in the forefront of the industry. The company has been focusing on R & D and production of all kinds of new chemical materials, through continuous independent innovation, with perfect chemical infrastructure, self-developed patented technology and rich production process control experience, it has become a leading scientific and technological enterprise in the large-scale production of polyetheramine, (methyl) isoborneol methacrylate and alicyclic acrylate. In addition, the company actively layout, research and development of cycloolefin copolymers (COC/COP), is expected to fill the domestic market gap in the field of high light transmittance materials.
Polyetheramine: the supply pressure is high and the prosperity is at the bottom.
The demand for polyetheramine is growing steadily, and the production capacity is under great pressure. Demand side: the downstream applications of polyetheramine are mainly concentrated in the fields of epoxy resin curing agents, inhibitors and surfactants, etc., and are also widely used in wind power generation, coatings, adhesives, oil and gas production, fuel auxiliaries and textile auxiliaries. According to Sullivan data, the global polyetheramine market increased from 184000 tons in 2016 to 286000 tons in 2020, with an annualized compound growth rate of 11.7%. The growth of the wind power industry is the main driver of the increase in demand for polyetheramine. With the continued support of the dual-carbon policy, the demand for polyetheramine will continue to expand in the future. Supply side: due to the rising demand for polyetheramine and rising profits in recent years, mainstream manufacturers have issued production expansion plans. According to incomplete statistics, the planned production capacity of the industry in the next few years is 255,000 tons / year, and the supply pressure is greater. The company plans to add 20,000 tons / year production capacity in 2025, the total production capacity will reach 40,000 tons / year, and the product penetration rate is expected to increase. Since the beginning of 2023, the profit of polyetheramine is at the bottom of history because the downstream demand of polyetheramine is lower than expected and the new capacity is put into production.
The field of high light transmission materials is expected to fill the domestic gap, the company took the lead in the layout of COC/COP for high light transmission materials, superior optical properties, high technical barriers to its preparation, domestic production is in a blank. Due to the special result of COC/COP, there are high technical barriers in monomer, catalyst and polymerization technology. International leading enterprises such as Ruiweng, Baoli Plastics and Mitsui Chemical have formed a complete industrial chain from cycloolefin monomer to polymer synthesis, occupying most of the production capacity. At present, the industrial production of COC/COP industry in China has been in a blank state for a long time, all relying on imports, and the future market space is broad. The company has the highest design capacity, takes the lead in completing laboratory-level synthesis and verification, and all indicators meet expectations, and is expected to become the first listed company to mass-produce COC/COP in China.
Take the main counterbid varieties of the company's COC as an example, the price of Japanese manufacturers is basically between 120,000 yuan / ton and 160,000 yuan / ton, while the company expects the market sales price to be about 80,000 yuan / ton, which is more competitive compared with the pricing of Japanese manufacturers. The relatively low price is conducive to change the high price of COC/COP products, and can greatly expand the downstream application fields of products. Localization is expected to open more new demand space and enhance the consumer demand of COC/COP. In addition, after the project is put into production, the price of the company's products is lower than the price of the existing products, which can help the company's products to quickly form domestic substitution and increase the company's product market share.
Investment suggestion
As a national high-tech enterprise deeply ploughing new materials in China, without considering the future changes in equity and considering the contribution of polyetheramine and COC/COP project capacity, the company is expected to make a net profit of 40 million yuan, 155 million yuan and 424 million yuan from 2023 to 2025, corresponding to the closing price PE of 102.7X, 26.4X and 9.7X on September 28, 2023, covering for the first time and giving it a "buy" rating.
Risk hint
1, the production capacity of polyetheramine has increased significantly, and the demand is lower than expected; 2, the progress of the new project is not as expected; 3, the risk of price decline after the production capacity of the optical material fund-raising project is put into production; 4, the profit forecast assumption is not valid or not as expected.