“产品与服务”夯实根基，打造一站式动物模型解决方案以技术起家，公司动物模型储备丰富，一站式服务平台形态初显。公司在模式动物领域深耕数十载，能够熟练掌握并运用Crispr/Cas9、ESC 细胞打靶、Cre/Loxp、转座子等系统进行基因编辑动物模型的构建。在发展策略上，公司产品与服务两手抓：1）产品端：动物模型产品板块逐步分化，标准化模型具备“高毛利”“高周转”等优势，业务扩张迅速，是未来的发展重点；2）服务端：药效评价及表型分析等CRO 相关业务体量迅速扩张，并为饲养业务天然引流。The domestic model animal industry leader, with rapid growth in performance in recent years, is one of the earliest established omni-directional model biological service providers in China. The company was founded in 2009, is a professional engaged in genetic modification animal model research and development, breeding and analysis and testing business, committed to universities, research institutes, hospitals, pharmaceutical companies around the world to provide comprehensive, convenient, professional model biotechnology services and model resources suppliers. Benefiting from the rapid development of precision medical care, the company's performance has grown rapidly in recent years: 1) revenue: in 2020, South Model achieved revenue of 196 million yuan, and CAGR in the past three years reached 37% in 2021. The company is expected to achieve revenue of 274 million yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 40%. 2) profit end: in 2020, South Model achieved a net profit of 44.56 million yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 92%. In 2021, the company expects to achieve a net profit of 59.62 million yuan, still maintaining a rapid growth of 34% compared with the same period last year.
The rising sun of the model animal industry continues to benefit from the gradual expansion of the model animal market in the pharmaceutical industry, and the industry ushered in an upward development cycle. According to Animal Model Market Report statistics, the global market for animal model services is about US $14.9 billion in 2019 and is expected to reach US $20.9 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of about 9.25% in the past eight years. Among them, the global market size of genetically modified animal models will increase from US $10 billion in 2019 to US $14.1 billion in 2023, accounting for about 2x3 of the whole animal model service market, and the average growth rate is also slightly higher than that of the whole animal model market.
From the perspective of the industrial chain, we believe that the company will greatly benefit from the high prosperity of downstream basic research, CRO, drug R & D and other industries, with great potential for future development: 1) domestic R & D investment has repeatedly reached new highs. In 2020, the amount of domestic R & D investment was as high as 2.4 trillion yuan, accounting for 2.4% of the gross domestic product (GDP). Among them, the investment in basic research more related to model animals increased significantly; 2) the CRO industry remained high, driving the demand for model animals. Biological research, drug screening and preclinical pharmacokinetics, safety evaluation and other services in the stage of drug discovery are high-frequency links in the use of model animals.
"products and services" consolidate the foundation, create an one-stop animal model solution to start with technology, the company animal model reserve is rich, one-stop service platform form is beginning to show. The company has been working in the field of model animals for decades, and can skillfully master and use Crispr/Cas9, ESC cell targeting, Cre/Loxp, transposon and other systems to build gene editing animal models. In terms of development strategy, the company focuses on both products and services: 1) the product side: the animal model product plate is gradually differentiated, and the standardized model has the advantages of "high gross margin" and "high turnover", and the business expands rapidly, which is the focus of future development; 2) the server side: the volume of CRO-related business such as efficacy evaluation and phenotypic analysis expands rapidly, and natural drainage for the breeding business.
Profit forecast and investment advice
The company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 is expected to be 2.74,3.74 and 500 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 40%, 36% and 34%, respectively. From 2021 to 2023, the homing net profit was 0.60,0.79 and 113 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 34%, 33% and 43% respectively, and the corresponding EPS was 0.76,1.01,1.45 yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponding to PE is 66x, 50x and 35x respectively, covering for the first time and giving a "buy" rating.
Risk hint
1. Intensification of competition in the industry
2. The growth rate of the industry has slowed down, and the performance growth has fallen short of expectations.
3. Iterative risk of gene editing technology.
