The Zhitong Finance App learned that Anxin Securities released a research report saying that orthopedics has left the bottom of the policy. The probability that the policy will be further tightened or the price will drop further is low. Prices have basically stabilized, and referring to the example of trauma collection contract renewals, there is a possibility that the price will rise further. It is recommended to focus on high-quality domestic leaders in key orthopedic segments.
The main views of Anxin Securities are as follows:
Industry policy side: The collection of core segments has been implemented, and the rule design is becoming more and more optimized.
1) At present, national joint harvesting, spinal collection, and large-scale trauma alliance collection (covering a large area of the country) have all been carried out. The sports medicine market is small and mainly dominated by foreign manufacturers. Currently, it is not within the scope of collection. The collection in the three core fields has basically been implemented, and the bottom of the orthopedic collection policy is in place.
2) Judging from the specific rule design of collection, the 2021 joint collection, 2022 spinal collection, and the 2023 Trauma Alliance collection renewal trend shows continuous optimization and improvement of rules, suppression of vicious price competition, and gentler price reduction and elimination mechanisms. Joint harvesting uses rules such as different groups, low elimination rates, and rehabilitation mechanisms to prevent companies from hitting the low price. The price reduction rate is relatively moderate, and the winning rate is high; the former stipulates that the price reduction of more than 60% based on the highest effective price can be selected. The latter also makes it clear that as long as the declared price of the enterprise is lower than the maximum effective price, it is likely that it will be eligible for selection.
3) Judging future collection price trends, the bank believes that orthopedics has left the bottom of the policy. The probability that the policy will be further tightened or the price will drop further is low. Prices have basically stabilized, and referring to the example of traumatic collection contract renewals, there is a possibility that the price will rise further.
It is recommended to focus on high-quality domestic leaders in key orthopedic segments. 1) Dabo Medical (002901.SZ), a leader in the trauma industry, continuously enriching its business layout; 2) Weigao Orthopedic (688161.SH), a leader in the field of orthopedic devices in China, with a comprehensive product line layout; 3) Sanyou Medical (688085.SH), which establishes the company's high-end product advantage; 4) Chunli Medical (688236.SH), which is deeply involved in the joint field, actively innovates and expands the business field; 5) Elken Medical (01789), a leader in the field of orthopedic joints, steady progress in business development, leading 3D printing in China; 6) Kellytai ( 300326.SZ), leading minimally invasive intervention in vertebroplasty in China, with strong product characteristics.
Risk warning: the risk that domestic substitution falls short of expectations, and the risk that net profit will decline due to increased competition in the industry.