Focus on commodity trends

“King of Safe Haven” big dive! International gold prices have dropped 9 times in a row, and jewellery has fallen below 590 yuan per gram. How will they go after the holiday season?

Gelonghui Finance · Oct 8, 2023 14:54

来源：格隆汇

近段时间，金价就像坐上了“过山车”——9月快速冲高，不少黄金品牌门店的金饰售价一度达到610元每克，眼下快速回落，到了10月8日已经跌到了每克587元。

门店金价大跌背后，国际金价近日也跌跌不休，上演“九连跌”，累计跌幅超5%。不过周五黄金出现探底迹象，小幅收涨。

展望后市，多位机构分析师认为，本轮金价调整已经接近尾声，看好四季度黄金类资产的表现。

国际金价9连跌后小幅上涨

纽约商品交易所COMEX黄金期货价格自9月25日起连续9个交易日下跌，创7个月以来新低。截至10月6日，COMEX黄金收报1831.8点。10月7日开盘，COMEX黄金高开，截至凌晨5点更显数据，COMEX黄金价格报1847点，微调0.83%。

现货黄金也跌势凶猛，10个交易内跌幅超过4.8%。2022年10月以来，现货黄金价格持续上调，并于2023年5月涨至2072.19美元/盎司，随后价格波动下滑，逐渐跌破2000美元/盎司、1900美元/盎司，并于近期出现大“跳水”。截至目前，现货黄金报价1831.93美元/盎司。

沪金在节前也大幅下跌。截至9月28日，沪金报收459.5元/克，当日下跌1.88%，较9月高点下跌4.32%。

品牌金饰每克降近30元跌破590元

品牌金店价格上，今年以来，黄金价格波动较大，金饰价格一度上升到每克600元，9月21日，周大福、六福饰品金价一度攀升至615元/克的高位。不过，中秋、国庆假期，金价出现连续回落，每克跌破590元。

金价查询网数据显示，多个品牌的首饰金价在9月27日起就出现回落，截至目前（10月8日），每克普遍降价15到30元不等。周大福、老凤祥、老庙黄金、周生生等多个品牌价格为587元/克。

全国最大的黄金批发市场深圳水贝黄金价格463.5元/克。据了解，深圳水贝金价根据国际金价来调整，国庆假期前几天水贝的金价为每克465元，10月5日晚上的金价每克458元，而10月7日的金价则继续下跌为每克453元。此前9月19日有记者走访深圳水贝黄金市场，该日的金价为每克472元。

不过，金价的下跌并没有影响深圳水贝黄金的销售热度。

节后黄金如何走？

对于黄金的中长期表现，机构的判断存在分歧。

方正证券研报指出，目前内外盘金价仍然存在背离，预计国庆后会有所收敛。长期来看内外盘金价不会持续维持如此明显的套利空间，随着资本流通渠道的通畅，价格有望归一。

多位专家表示，本轮金价下跌的原因主要是美元走强和投资者的避险情绪减弱等因素导致。而黄金价格的下跌可能是临时的，也可能持续一段时间。

有观点认为，随着美联储加息进入尾声，美元指数较难长期保持强势，黄金价格震荡走强的可能性较大。

财信证券表示，当前欧美主要发达经济体衰退迹象显现，美元指数、美债实际利率短期有所回升，金价短期承压，但美联储加息预期见顶，中长期仍看好金价中枢上涨。

国开证券表示，未来国际黄金价格走势存在诸多不确定性，料波动和震荡将加剧。

一方面，美国就业市场保持强劲，尽快结束加息进程的预期恐会落空，这或将导致10年期美债收益率继续走高，对黄金价格形成压制。

另一方面，尽管美国国会9月30日通过了临时拨款法案，在最后时刻避免部分联邦政府机构“停摆”，但该法案有效期为45天，如果不能在11月17日之前通过新的法案，美国政府很可能再次陷入“停摆”的风险。近日，美国众议长麦卡锡被投票罢免，美国两党之间和各党内部斗争激烈，政坛乱象丛生，在此背景下，黄金的避险功能充分体现，或支撑黄金价格走高。

因此，短期来看，经济和政治因素可能共同影响黄金价格，多空因素激烈交锋，后市走势或现明显震荡，建议密切关注事态发展。

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Source: Gelonghui

Recently, the price of gold is like riding a “roller coaster” — it soared rapidly in September. At one point, the price of gold jewellery in many gold brand stores reached 610 yuan per gram. Currently, it is falling rapidly. By October 8, it had already dropped to 587 yuan per gram.

Behind the sharp drop in store gold prices, international gold prices have also been falling continuously recently. “Nine consecutive declines” have been staged, with a cumulative drop of over 5%. However, gold showed signs of bottoming out on Friday and closed slightly higher.

Looking ahead to the future market, many institutional analysts believe that the current round of gold price adjustments is nearing its end, and they are optimistic about the performance of gold assets in the fourth quarter.

International gold prices rose slightly after falling for 9 consecutive days

The price of COMEX gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange has been falling for 9 consecutive trading days since September 25, hitting a new low in 7 months. As of October 6, COMEX Gold closed at 1831.8 points. On October 7, COMEX gold opened higher. As of 5 a.m., the data was more visible. The COMEX gold price was 1,847 points, fine-tuned by 0.83%.

Spot gold also declined sharply, with a drop of more than 4.8% within 10 trades. Since October 2022, spot gold prices have continued to rise, and rose to 2072.19 US dollars/ounce in May 2023.Prices then fluctuated and declined, gradually falling below 2,000 US dollars/ounce and 1,900 US dollars/ounce, and recently there was a major “dive”. Up to now, the price of spot gold is 1831.93 US dollars/ounce.

Shanghai gold also fell sharply before the holiday season. As of September 28, Shanghai Financial Services closed at 459.5 yuan/gram, down 1.88% on the same day and 4.32% from September's high.

Brand jewellery dropped nearly 30 yuan per gram and fell below 590 yuan

In terms of brand gold store prices, since this year, the price of gold has fluctuated greatly. At one point, the price of gold jewelry rose to 600 yuan per gram. On September 21, the price of gold for Chow Tai Fu and Lukfook jewelry once climbed to a high level of 615 yuan/gram. However, during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, the price of gold fell continuously, falling below 590 yuan per gram.

According to data from the Gold Price Search Network, the price of gold jewelry from many brands has declined since September 27. Up to now (October 8), prices have generally been reduced by 15 to 30 yuan per gram. The price of various brands such as Zhou Dafu, Lao Fengxiang, Laomiao Gold, and Zhou Shengsheng is 587 yuan/gram.

The price of gold in Shenzhen Shuibei, the largest gold wholesale market in the country, is 463.5 yuan/gram. According to information, the price of shui shellfish in Shenzhen is adjusted according to international gold prices. A few days before the National Day holiday, the gold price of shui shellfish was 465 yuan per gram, the price of gold on the night of October 5 was 458 yuan per gram, while the price of gold on October 7 continued to drop to 453 yuan per gram. Earlier, on September 19, a reporter visited the Shenzhen Shuibei Gold Market. The price of gold that day was 472 yuan per gram.

However, the decline in gold prices did not affect the sales popularity of Shenzhen Shuibei Gold.

How does gold go after the holiday?

Agencies' judgments on the medium- to long-term performance of gold are divided.

The Fangzheng Securities Research Report pointed out that currently there is still a divergence between domestic and foreign market gold prices, and it is expected that there will be some decline after the National Day. In the long run, internal and external gold prices will not continue to maintain such obvious arbitrage space. With the opening of capital circulation channels, prices are expected to stabilize.

A number of experts said that the reason for the current round of gold price decline was mainly due to factors such as the strengthening of the US dollar and weakening risk aversion among investors. However, the decline in the price of gold may be temporary, or it may continue for some time.

There are opinions that as the Fed's interest rate hike comes to an end, it will be more difficult for the US dollar index to remain strong for a long time, and there is a high possibility that the price of gold will fluctuate and strengthen.

Caixin Securities said that currently the major developed economies in Europe and the US are showing signs of decline. The US dollar index and real interest rates on US bonds have rebounded in the short term, and the price of gold is under pressure in the short term, but expectations for the Fed's interest rate hike have peaked, and they are still optimistic about the central rise in gold prices in the medium to long term.

CDB Securities said,There is a lot of uncertainty about the future trend of international gold prices, and it is expected that fluctuations and shocks will intensify.

On the one hand, the US job market remains strong, and expectations of ending the interest rate hike process as soon as possible may come to naught. This may cause 10-year US Treasury yields to continue to rise, suppressing the price of gold.

On the other hand, although the US Congress passed the temporary funding bill on September 30 to avoid the “shutdown” of some federal government agencies at the last minute, the bill is valid for 45 days. If a new bill cannot be passed before November 17, the US government is likely to fall into the risk of “shutting down” again. Recently, US Speaker of the House of Representatives McCarthy was voted out. Struggles between the two parties in the US and within each party are intense, and the political world is full of chaos. Against this background, the safe-haven function of gold is fully reflected, or supports the rise in the price of gold.

Therefore, in the short term, economic and political factors may jointly influence the price of gold. There is a fierce clash between long and short factors, and future market trends may now clearly fluctuate. It is recommended to pay close attention to developments.

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