Event
The company releases its first quarterly report of 2022
The company released the first quarter report of 2022. 2022Q1 achieved: 1) revenue of 499 million yuan, an increase of 6.98% over the same period last year; 2) net profit of 121 million yuan, an increase of 960.23% over the same period last year; 3) deduction of 82 million yuan of non-return net profit, an increase of 511.46% over the same period last year.
Brief comment
COVID-19 vaccine led to performance growth, and the access speed of MCV products was in line with the expected 2022Q1 company: 1) income 499 million yuan, an increase of 6.98% over the same period last year; 2) return net profit of 121 million yuan, an increase of 960.23% over the same period last year; 3) deduction of non-return net profit of 82 million yuan, an increase of 511.46% over the same period last year. COVID-19 vaccine international sales drive the company's performance growth.
In 2021, the company's bivalent meningococcal polysaccharide conjugate vaccine (MCV2) and tetravalent meningococcal polysaccharide conjugate vaccine (MCV4) have been approved to market successively, tender access work is under way, and 22H2 is expected to begin to increase.
Considering the pipeline research and potential market competition, the company's MCV4 has a first-mover advantage. It is estimated that MCV4 has an overall penetration rate of 30%, a long-term market share of 50%, and a sales peak of 2.6 billion yuan. At present, there are a large number of listed and potential MCV2 products enterprises. considering that the company has a strong background in sales business line managers and has rich experience, the company's MCV2 market share is expected to reach 10%, corresponding to the peak sales of 300-400 million yuan.
Others in the research pipeline, inhaled recombinant novel coronavirus vaccine (type 5 adenovirus vector) has completed the clinical Ⅰ / Ⅱ phase trial by the end of 2021, PCV13i vaccine officially entered the Ⅲ phase clinical trial in April 2021, diphtheria tetanus vaccine and tuberculosis enhanced vaccine are in the clinical trial stage. The mRNA vaccine developed for the mutant strain, COVID-19, has been approved for clinical use, waiting for progress in research and development.
COVID-19 vaccine price reduction pulled down the gross profit margin, commercial team building increased the expense rate 2022Q1, the company's comprehensive gross profit margin was 70.27%, down 9.15% from the previous month; the net profit margin was 22.89%, down 24.33% from the previous month, and the decline in profitability was mainly due to the price adjustment of COVID-19 vaccine. The sales expense rate was 6.87%, an increase of 5.33% over the same period last year, mainly due to the increase in the number of sales staff of the company and the continuous promotion of vaccine commercialization team building; the management expense rate was 44.31%, down 16.68% from the same period last year, mainly due to the change of income base; the R & D expenditure rate was 31.47%, down 26.33% from the same period last year, mainly due to the change of income base. The decrease in net cash flow from operating activities compared with the same period last year was mainly due to a longer payback cycle and increased expenditure on raw materials and payroll. Inventories increased by 229.71% year-on-year, mainly due to a sharp increase in raw material reserves. Other financial indicators are basically normal.
Profit forecast and investment rating
For the time being, we only consider the expectation of commercialization of COVID-19 vaccine in 2022, and the assumption that the commercialization of the company's non-COVID-19 vaccine will increase marketing, depreciation of fixed assets, and increased R & D investment brought about by the progress of R & D pipelines in 2022. We expect the company to achieve operating income of 2.185 billion yuan, 1.016 billion yuan and 1.478 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of-49.2%,-53.5% and 45.5% respectively over the same period last year. The return net profit was 100 million yuan, 319 million yuan and 503 million yuan respectively, up-94.8%, 218.8% and 57.8% respectively over the same period last year, equivalent to 0.40 yuan per share, 1.29 yuan per share and 2.03 yuan per share for EPS, respectively, maintaining the buying rating.
Risk hint
The speed of batch issuance is not as fast as expected; the risk of product price fluctuation; the risk of product safety; the listing progress of new varieties is lower than expected.