华统股份(002840)公司首次覆盖报告:浙江生猪屠宰龙头养殖黑马 放量降本业绩兑现在即

Huatong Co., Ltd. (002840) Company's first coverage report: Zhejiang pig slaughter leader, dark horse breeding, reduced production volume, cost reduction, performance is imminent

開源證券 ·  09/28/2023

Zhejiang pig slaughtering leader breeding cutting-edge dark horse, the integrated layout gradually into the performance of the company's slaughtering business started, 2022 pig slaughtering capacity reached 3.46 million, Zhejiang pig slaughtering leading enterprise.

Since 2019, the company has undertaken the layout of Zhejiang pig protection and supply project, and the number of live pigs has reached 1.205 million in 2022, and is expected to rise to 2.2 million in 2023, with a reduction of nearly 1 yuan / kg in breeding cost. the profit scale of slaughtering business continues to expand. We estimate that the company's 2023-2025 homing net profit will be 0.26x10.02max 1.801m, EPS 0.04max 1.64x2.94 respectively, and the current share price corresponding to PE is 334.3x8.8max 4.9 times, the company's performance is about to be realized, and the company is given a "buy" rating for the first time.

Pig farming: the company enjoys the location advantage of high pig prices in Zhejiang, the rapid expansion of production capacity and the steady decline in the cost of selling areas: in 2022, there are only 8.51 million pigs in Zhejiang, the environmental policy is strict, the self-sufficiency rate is less than 40%, and the supply falls short of demand for a long time. The company is expected to continue to enjoy the excess benefits brought by high pig prices in Zhejiang. Epidemic prevention advantages: Zhejiang has low breeding density and many mountains and hills, and the company building has a strong ability of self-breeding and epidemic prevention. The survival rate of 2023H1 company in the whole process of pig breeding is 88%, ranking in the forefront of the industry. Population restructuring: the company introduced more than 3000 French breeder Nucl é us in July 2022, and it is expected that the proportion of French breeder pigs will rise to 3000 in 2025 corresponding to PSY to 27, superimposed elimination of inefficient sows and introduction of PIC breeding pigs, laying a solid foundation for long-term cost reduction and efficiency improvement. Hurdle volume: the company's provincial production capacity has been completed and gradually full production in the first year of 3.5 million, and it is expected to expand to 3.7 million through new construction and leasing. The production capacity of 350000 heads in Jixi, Anhui Province, is expected to be initially released in 2025, and the production capacity of 2 million heads in Fuzhou, Jiangxi Province is steadily advanced. It is estimated that the number of pigs produced by the company from 2023 to 2025 is 220,400 and 6 million respectively. Cost decline: the company's pig farms gradually full production superimposed management and operation level continues to improve, pig breeding costs continue to decline, it is estimated that 2023Q4 can be reduced to less than 17 yuan / kg.

Slaughtering business: hot fresh meat is in line with southern consumption preferences, and profits continue to expand. According to Zhuochuang, hot fresh meat consumption in provinces south of Hubei accounted for more than 60% in 2022. The company is located in Zhejiang, pig slaughtering products for hot fresh meat, in line with the surrounding area consumer preferences. Hot fresh meat to sell fixed mining profit plus, the sales pace is fast, the risk of inventory price drop is small. In 2022, the utilization rate of pig slaughtering capacity of the company is only 25%, which has a lot of room for improvement. Although the gross profit of the company's slaughtering business is thin, it continues to expand, and the profit scale of volume premium is expected to expand.

Risk hints: the risk of animal disease, the risk of abnormal fluctuations in pig prices, the company's listing and cost reduction are not as expected.

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