Brake business is expected to pick up gradually, and the company has a significant competitive advantage. The company is a leading enterprise of powder metallurgy brake pads, deeply ploughing the rail transit industry for many years. As of 2023H1, the company has a total of 10 "railway product certification certificates" and 8 "railway product trial certificates" issued by CRCC, covering 33 models of domestic EMU and AC drive locomotives at a speed of 160km / h. In the joint procurement of EMU brake plates held in 2023, the company ranked first in the number of winning bidds. in the maintenance business, it has completed product maintenance qualification review and new maintenance qualification review of several railway bureaus.
Since 2023, the national railway passenger flow has gradually recovered, which will lead the company's brake pad business to pick up.
Photovoltaic plate capacity release, driving the rapid growth of the company's performance. In terms of carbon-carbon thermal field, the 3500-ton carbon-carbon composite products production line of 2023H1 Company has been completed and put into production, which can meet the mass production of 36-inch or larger products. With large-scale deposition equipment, continuous high-temperature equipment, intelligent key processes and process connection automation, the company has raised the carbon-carbon thermal field manufacturing efficiency and process level to the industry leading level. The price of carbon and carbon heat field continues to decline, and it is difficult for second-tier players in the industry to make profits. with the continuous growth of photovoltaic capacity, it is expected that the price of carbon and carbon heat field will bottom out and rise again. In terms of quartz crucibles, 2023H1 Company has completed the construction of two production lines of quartz crucibles and put them into full production, and the production lines of 20 quartz crucibles of Jiangyou are advancing steadily, and the company has realized automatic operation in the melting process of the crucibles. At present, the service life and per unit yield of quartz crucibles have ranked among the top level of the industry. Due to the tight balance between supply and demand of Gaochun quartz sand, the profit of quartz crucible business is better.
Carbon ceramic disc is expected to open up new growth space. The company accelerates the layout of 150000 sets of carbon ceramic brake disc production lines in Jiangyou Industrial Park, with a total production capacity of 600,000 sets. On the demand side, the company has established carbon ceramic brake disc project cooperation with 19 automobile mainframe manufacturers and supply chain customers, and obtained the fixed point of carbon ceramic disc production project for key models of new energy vehicle companies. With the gradual shift of domestic new energy vehicles to middle and high-end brand positioning, carbon ceramic brake disc is expected to quickly achieve industrialization and open up new incremental space.
Profit forecast and investment rating. From 2023 to 2025, we estimate that the company's homing net profit will be RMB 360,000,000, and earnings per share will be RMB 0.64pm, respectively. The corresponding PE will be 11.1 times of PE. For the first time, we gave the company a "buy" rating.
Risk hint: capacity expansion is not as expected; new business development is not as expected.