The company's trade model is still dominated by self-management, supplemented by the combination of agency and current period. The company's trade structure is still dominated by domestic trade, supplemented by import and export trade. In 2022, the company actively integrated into the domestic and international dual-cycle development. In 2022, the total import and export volume (including re-exports) was 16.09 billion US dollars, of which exports were 9.459 billion US dollars, up 14.22% from the same period last year. The company's supply chain integrated services sector mainly includes commodity trade and automobile distribution, with a wide range of trade, among which the business scale of core business such as metals, energy, chemical industry and automotive services are in the forefront of the country.
Steel trading business: steel trade is the company's most important trading products. In recent years, the steel trade industry has been in the doldrums, and the company has maintained a trend of growth in trade volume with its sound sales network. Under the extremely severe situation in the iron and steel industry, the company actively seeks transformation and upgrading, changing the traditional trade model with batch difference, regional difference and time difference as the main profit point, and the operation scale and gross profit remain stable.
Automobile trading business: the sales and profit growth rate of the back-net business is higher than that of the front-net business, and the gross profit of the after-sales service business accounts for a steady increase in the profits of the main automobile industry. Since 2010, in the front and back net business of subsidiary property Yuantong Automobile, the compound growth rate of sales income and gross profit is 2.9% and 0.61% respectively; the compound growth rate of operating income of back network business is 21.1% and the compound growth rate of gross profit is 24.9%.
Coal trading business: subsidiary products Huaneng is the country's largest coal trading enterprise, market participation for a long time, sales network throughout the province, there are more stable customer groups. In 2020, due to the impact of the epidemic and the decline in the average price of coal, the sales volume decreased by 8.73% compared with the same period last year. In 2021, with the improvement of the coal market, the average sales price rose year-on-year, the company's sales increased by 148.16% year-on-year, and the physical sales increased by 7.29%. Under the background of the phased outbreak of the epidemic in 2022 and the optimization of China's power generation structure, the company's sales volume decreased by 18.54% year-on-year, and the physical sales volume decreased by 17.90% compared with the same period last year. At the same time, the product ring can realize the forward extension of the industrial chain through the operation of Jiaxing Xinjiaisi thermal power plant. Jiaxing Xinjiaisi Thermal Power Co., Ltd. is operated by Product Huaneng Holdings, with total installed capacity 125MW, main heating network 113KM, 103 downstream steam users, annual power generation capacity of 850 million KWH, annual heating capacity of 3.5 million tons. When the coal price falls, part of the benefits of subsequent heating and power generation can be obtained through the reduction of the operating cost of the power plant.
Profit forecast: maintain the "overweight" rating. It is estimated that from 2023 to 2025, the company's operating income will be 6044.73max 6682.79max respectively, and its net profit will be 40.92 billion RMB, respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 6.08x/5.03x/4.06x.
Risk hints: domestic macroeconomic risk, supply chain integrated service risk, financial service risk, high-end manufacturing risk, profit forecast and valuation model are lower than expected.