Shipping: Clarkson VLCC TCE fell 15 per cent to $16968 a day this week as the situation escalated after Britain detained an Iranian tanker in Gibraltar on the grounds of violating EU sanctions on Syria. Iran threatened to detain the British ship if it was not released soon. The current logic is still to increase exports to replace the increase in transport distance brought about by OPEC production reduction, superimposing the transport capacity brought about by sulfur limitation in the second half of the year. At present, the VLCC to be installed with desulphurization tower accounts for 16% of the transport capacity, which is the highest proportion of all subdivided ship types. According to Clarkson's latest report, after the sulfur restriction order comes into effect,
(1) affect the supply of 1.4% of the whole tanker VLCC.
(2) cost up and economic speed down.
(3) promote the dismantling of old ships
(4) increasing the demand for low sulfur oil / MGO requires more crude oil refining, increasing the transportation demand for refined oil by 3-4%, and the shipping demand for crude oil by 1.5%.
(5) the new refining and chemical demand increases the inventory demand, and the shortage of land inventory will cause about 1% of the fleet to become oil storage demand. Continue to be optimistic about the upward cycle of the tanker plate. This week, BDI reported 1563 points, up 29%. Iron ore prices hit new highs to stimulate shippers, superimposed 400000 tons of ore ships docked in the second half of the year to install desulphurization tower, BDI rose sharply. However, the response of bulk shipments of Hong Kong stocks and US stocks is relatively lacklustre, the core reason is that the sea transport volume dropped sharply after the Vale mine disaster in the first half of the year, and the economy is still resilient. As a result of the month-on-month compression of demand in the first half of the year to the second half of the year, it is still difficult to draw a conclusion of year-on-year improvement for the whole year.
Express delivery: the industry continues to maintain a high growth trend. In the second half of 2019, join express delivery to look at cost control, direct express delivery to see the performance flexibility brought about by marginal improvement. From the perspective of e-commerce express companies, the reduction of unit cost is still the core index to observe e-commerce express delivery at the current stage. The difference of asset investment is the core reason for the difference in the leading cost of existing e-commerce express delivery. for the cost lags behind temporarily, "replenishing the deficiency of assets" is the core of cost reduction in the future. Direct operation of express deliverySF HoldingsFor example, we will increase revenue and reduce expenditure this year, and improvements in revenue and cost will bring performance flexibility. Cost reduction is reflected in cost control. According to the first quarterly report of this year, gross profit margin has increased by 0.4%. Open source is reflected in the fact that the company has taken the initiative to layer existing products according to the needs of downstream customers, and the unit growth rate has improved since May. On the whole, those who are optimistic about the most stable performance growth in the long runYunda sharesThe revenue and cost side ushered in the improved SF Holdings, focusing on the obvious results achieved on the cost side.Yuantong ExpressAnd BABA are expected to usher in an increase in efficiency after taking a stake.Shentong Express。
Aviation: Brent crude oil prices fluctuated little this week, superimposed last July high base effect, peak season oil price cost pressure dropped sharply, cost-side pressure slowed down. After the implementation of the lease standards, the operating leases are consolidated, the depreciation costs and financial expenses rise sharply, and the changes in operating costs still need to be closely watched. At the same time, with the increase of exchange rate elasticity, the direct impact of external factors is worthy of attention, but it is still necessary to observe whether the introduction of aircraft is affected after the evolution of the external environment, and then affect the deceleration of supply. FAA has been establishedJoint technologyEvaluation agencies, jointly evaluate the safety of the MACS system, there is still no news of FAA approval, and the probability of 737MAX flying again before the end of October is low. With the continuous progress of supply-side reform, the profitability of the Aviation Division is still in a long-term rising channel, coupled with the reduction of civil aviation development fund charges since July, the profits of the three major airlines have directly increased by 500 million to 700 million, and performance flexibility is still being gradually realized. We continue to focus on recommending more stable performance.Air China Limited。
Railway, highway and port: for the second half of 2019, it is again emphasized to strike a balance between dividend defense and steady growth. The three plates of railways, highways and ports are relatively robust as a whole, but the plates are dismantled or only look at the targets, and they are both offensive and defensive in investment. The railway freight target and the eastern coastal highway target have the characteristics of high dividend and defensive allocation. But the target of railway passenger transport depends on the high beta of PB valuation and the high-speed leader of the national layout.Investment promotion highwayWith steady growth and running out of profitsShandong highwayThe container ports with valuation repair space, business extension and bulk ports benefiting from the transit railway show high growth, which all have the value of growth and offensive layout. On the whole, dividend defense is recommended to configure Guangdong Expressway A,Nanjing-Shanghai Expressway及Daqin RailwaySteady growth suggests the layout of investment promotion highways,Rizhao Port及Qingdao PortPerformance reversal high flexibility is recommended to pay attention toGuangzhou-Shenzhen RailwayShandong Expressway.
Risk tip: economic growth is lower than expected.