The leading enterprise of household medical devices, which is in a period of rapid growth, covers for the first time, giving "buy" rating Kefu Medical to focus on household medical devices for 14 years, after years of deep cultivation and research and development of expanded products, has formed health monitoring, rehabilitation aids, respiratory support, medical care, traditional Chinese medicine physiotherapy five core household medical device plates to meet customer one-stop shopping needs. Considering that the company is currently in the stage of lean management optimization expenses, horizontal expansion category vertical upgrade iteration, new production capacity pushing up self-production ratio, and Jian'er listening store expanding card position, the revenue and profit is expected to grow rapidly, we estimate that the company's 2023-2025 homing net profit will be 4.57shock 5.69 / 715 million yuan and EPS 2.19amp 2.733.43 yuan respectively. The current share price is 11.2 times corresponding to Pamp E, which is more cost-effective and growing compared with comparable companies. It is covered for the first time and is given a "buy" rating.
Household medical devices are the second largest track for medical devices, and the domestic leader will have a bright future in the post-epidemic era. According to estimates, the market scale of household medical devices in China has increased from 75 billion yuan in 2017 to 208.6 billion yuan in 2022, with a CAGR of 23%. It is currently the second largest medical device track, and this track is in the early stage of rapid development of the equipment life cycle. At the same time, in the post-epidemic era, people pay more attention to their own health management, and the aging in China is further deepened, and immediate family health monitoring, intelligent diagnosis and rapid treatment are particularly necessary. the demand for household testing and rehabilitation health care equipment will continue to release in the medium and long term, among which the head enterprises with good brand image, high customer stickiness, early omni-channel layout and outstanding categories are expected to have a bright future in β opportunities.
Kefu Medical effectively increases gross profit margin through product upgrading and self-production, three-dimensional channels provide product empowerment companies with clear product R & D and listing plans, and by expanding middle and high-end product categories, upgrading and iterating old products, as well as Changsha and Xiangyin base fund-raising projects capacity climbing, the proportion of self-production is expected to continue to increase, the company's overall gross profit margin is expected to continue to improve. The company has 102 online self-operated stores, more than 200,000 drugstore cooperation and 11 warehousing stores three-dimensional channels, which can open sales capacity for the rapid introduction of new products into the market. At the same time, the combination of online fast one-stop shopping and offline experiential shopping helps to improve the brand strength and influence. In August 2023, "Kefu" officially appeared on the CCTV channel, focusing on oxygen machines, blood glucose meters, sphygmomanometers and other core products to carry out a six-month three-dimensional launch, and the promotion of popularity has officially entered the accelerated stage.
The Jian'er hearing matching Center is accelerating the expansion of store seats, and the potential second growth curve has emerged. The hearing business is on the hearing aid track, which has large domestic alternative space (the top five foreign hearing groups account for 90% of the market share), low domestic penetration (less than 5%, far lower than 20% in Europe and 14% in Japan), increasing aging demand for hearing aids and low concentration of testing centers. By the end of 2022, the company has a total of 432 hearing aid matching centers and more than 1000 professional fitters, gradually increasing regional market share and brand influence. and the company is actively developing products such as real ear analyzers, high-end digital hearing aids and customized machines to create an industrial chain closed loop of hearing testing equipment-hearing aid products-hearing aid fitting services to meet different consumer needs. The quantitative change of store expansion in the future is expected to bring about a qualitative change in profit release.
Risk hint: the promotion of the company's new products is not as expected, and the macroeconomic downturn has led to a sharp decline in the consumption power of residents.