Deep ploughing in the field of small molecules for many years, the integrated service chain has been gradually improved. Hongbo Pharmaceutical is based on small molecule drug discovery business, takes design capability as its core competitive advantage, and deeply participates in the early process of customers' new drug research and development; with the continuous progress of new drug research and development, the company complies with customer needs, gradually extends its business downstream to pharmaceutical research business and CDMO business, and continues to build an integrated service chain to provide customers with one-stop service, thus deeply binding customer orders.
The front-end business orders are abundant to ensure the rapid growth of performance. In recent years, the company continues to increase marketing and customer development efforts, the further increase in the number of customers, the rapid growth of newly signed and on-hand orders.
By the end of 2022, the company's on-hand orders were 365 million, an increase of 54.22% over the same period last year. In addition, the newly signed order for 2023Q2 in the service sector is 133 million yuan, an increase of 42.10% compared with 2023Q1. The abundant orders ensure the sustained high growth of future performance.
Back-end business tigrillo is the core variety, and the patent is expected to expire quickly. At present, the main product of the company's commercial production business is Tegrillo intermediates, accounting for 80-90% of commercial production income. In the future, with the end of the extended protection period of Euro-American patent in December 2024, the demand for foreign Tegrillo series products is expected to grow rapidly, and the company's overseas sales are expected to increase rapidly, forming a new driving force for performance growth.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company's operating income from 2023 to 2025 to be 6.24max 8.36 / 1.123 billion yuan, up 30.27%, 33.97% and 34.33% respectively over the same period last year; and the net profit belonging to shareholders of the listed company is 1.02 shock, an increase of 52.34%, 35.71% and 35.74% respectively over the same period last year. We refer to the comparable company's average price-to-earnings ratio, combined with the company ushered in the valuation switch at the end of the year, giving the 2024 forecast return net profit 50 times PE, corresponding to the 12-month target market value of 6.95 billion yuan, the target price of 64.50 yuan per share, the first coverage, given a "buy rating".
Risk hints: the risk of lifting the ban, the risk of rising labor costs and brain drain, the risk of environmental protection and production safety, the risk of single and concentrated commercial production, exchange rate fluctuations and other risks.