French media reported on August 18 that many readers are undoubtedly familiar with Mark Twain's famous saying: "October is the most dangerous month for stock speculation." But other dangerous months are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February. The author of the Adventures of Tom Sawyer is not only a famous writer, he also fought in the stock market, got rich twice in the stock market, and then lost all his money. October is often a dangerous month for the stock market. But a decade ago, in August, the entire global financial system began to wobble and then collapsed after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008.
According to the August 16 article in French newspaper Le FigaroTen years after the biggest financial crisis since the stock market crash of 1929, global debt has just reached $217 trillion, up from $142 trillion a decade ago. Global debt now accounts for 327 per cent of global gross domestic product.The countries most affected by the subprime crisis seem to have lost their memory. Because in just one year, the total debt of the United States has increased by $2 trillion, exceeding $63 trillion at the end of the first quarter of this year.
From the perspective of financial markets, there is optimism at the moment. FamousDow JonesThe index has just passed the historical mark of 22000. That means it has tripled since February 2009. As forNASDAQIndex, which is in the same period.Alphabet Inc-CL C、Amazon、FacebookAndAppleLed by four stocks, it has tripled. According to most financial analysts, the total market capitalization of Apple Inc, which is breaking records every day, is likely to exceed 1 trillion US dollars by the end of this year. European stock markets are now looking happy, too, thanks to the good results of European companies and the appropriate monetary policy of the ECB.
However, two new risks have emerged in recent years and even in recent months. The first risk involves financial regulation. After the subprime crisis, under the guidance of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, the world has carried out a very important work in this regard, that is, to improve the mutual assistance and solvency of banks as the most important problem to solve, so that in the event of a crisis, people will not see the domino effect, nor will they see customers withdraw cash. European banks have taken the lead on this issue and even agreed to undergo "stress tests". Recently, however, there have been growing differences on both sides of the Atlantic over rulemaking. In particular, Trump advocates deregulation of financial markets, which is like jumping into the unknown.
The second risk has to do with what is known as the development of shadow banking. Some entities outside the traditional banking system are used to using shadow banking because it circumvents risk management rules. This involves some capital investment firms, hedge funds and asset managers. In 2007, such shadow banks held about $50 trillion. It may hold twice as much money today as it did then.
It can be said that 10 years after the subprime crisis, global finance once again lives, dances and sleeps on a volcano. And the volcano could erupt at any time. Because there is a huge gap compared with 2007The two firefighters who successfully put out the fire at that time, the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States and the European Central Bank, have actually exhausted all the water reserves used to put out the fire today.(reference message Network)