保隆科技(603197):空悬系统新获定点 订单释放指日可待

Baolong Technology (603197): The release of new designated orders for air suspension systems is just around the corner

華泰證券 ·  09/26

The new independent brand air suspension system project is designated, and it is expected that 25H1 mass production Baolong Technology will issue an announcement on September 25 that the company has received a designated notice from a domestic independent brand mainframe factory that it will supply air suspension system for its new platform project. The life cycle of the project is 5 years, the total amount of the life cycle will exceed 470 million yuan, and the average annual income is about 94 million yuan. The company expects mass production of the project in the first half of 2025. We maintain the previous forecast and estimate that the EPS of the company in 2023-2025 will be 1.870.58 plus 3.30 yuan respectively. Comparable company's 24-year Wind unanimously expected the average PE to be 26.4 times, giving the company 26.4 times PE in 24 years, with a target price of 68.01 yuan, maintaining the "overweight" rating.

There are plenty of orders for empty suspension products on hand, and it is expected to enter the period of rapid release.

The core technical capability of the company's air suspension system continues to enhance, and the business extends from air springs, gas tanks and other components to integrated shock absorbers, controllers, air supply units of integrated system products. While driving the bicycle matching value up, we believe that the integrated capability is expected to further strengthen the company's project development strength. As of September 12, the company has obtained 15 air spring shock absorber assembly and freestanding air spring project points, 2 air suspension controller project points, 1 air supply unit (ASU) project location, and 35 gas storage tank project points, covering ideal, NIO Inc., BYD and other independent quality customers. We are optimistic that the company's suspended business revenue will enter the fast-growth channel in 23-25, and the three-year CAGR is expected to exceed 120%. At the same time, with the optimization of scale effect and production line efficiency, the gross profit margin is expected to be improved gradually.

Empty suspension production line to raise, invest and expand production to ensure the release of orders

The company issued a prospectus for convertible bonds in May 23, and plans to invest 680 million to raise funds to build an annual production capacity of 4.82 million air suspension system components in Hefei Park. After reaching production, the air spring shock absorber assembly, freestanding air spring, air supply unit and suspension controller will achieve a production capacity of 1.41 million, 1.37 million, 1 million and 104 million units, respectively. The company expects that by 26 years, the capacity coverage of the designated projects of air spring shock absorbers and independent air springs will be about 88.78%, and the expansion project will provide a strong guarantee for the release of the company's air suspension system business.

Intelligent strategy is promising, ADAS products may become a new growth pole suspension business, the increase in smart driving penetration will bring more opportunities for the company: 1) the future L3 autopilot landing, or promote the direct TPMS loading rate to continue to uplink, expand the company's TPMS transmitter business scale; 2) the demand for sensors such as light and rainfall, speed and location will expand rapidly, and the company's sensor business is expected to rely on domestic smart cars to achieve volume growth. 3) Intelligent sensing products provide pure increment, and the company's millimeter wave radar, ultrasonic radar, 3M Company look system and integrated domain control products have all been designated by new projects. The launch of ADAS series products will create a new growth pole with more technical barriers for the company.

Risk hint: downstream vehicle production and sales are not as expected; new business development progress is not as expected.

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