Event: the company released its semi-annual report on August 24, 2023. 2023H1 realized 2.772 billion yuan in operating income,-17.91% last year, 100 million yuan in net profit vested in the parent company,-24.74% in the same period last year, and 97.7458 million yuan in non-return net profit,-26.02% in the same period last year. Among them, Q2 realized operating income of 1.497 billion yuan, month-on-month + 17.38%, year-on-year + 0.72%; return to the mother net profit of 50.1 million yuan, month-on-month-0.06%, year-on-year-28.99%.
Volume and price factors are a drag on the performance of H1. We believe that the main reason is that demand for nylon 6 was low and prices were low in the first half of the year compared with the same period last year.
Q2 volume-price ratio has been improved. 2023Q2 sells 121000 tons of nylon slices, with a month-on-month ratio of + 15.8% and a year-on-year ratio of + 6.4%. The average price is about 12388 yuan / ton, with a month-on-month ratio of + 1.56% and-1.56% compared with the same period last year. According to Baichuan Yingfu, 2023Q1, Q2 period, Q3 so far PA6 industry average price is 13451 yuan / ton, 13515 yuan / ton, 13878 yuan / ton, month-on-month price shows a continuous upward trend. Especially since the third quarter, the price of crude oil continues to rise, driving up the price of caprolactam, which forms a strong support at the cost end of PA6. The price of PA6 slices has risen by 1925 yuan per ton since July, while the rapid decline in industry inventories also reflects the resilience of demand. In the future, with the expected rise in oil prices still providing cost support, low inventories in the industry, the traditional peak season of "Gold, Nine and Silver" and the gradual recovery of downstream demand, prices are still expected to continue to rise.
Attach importance to research and development, promote construction, the company's long-term growth can be expected. The company attaches importance to research and development, as of the end of the first half of the year, the company has 47 patents, including 7 invention patents; in the first half of the year, the company's R & D expenditure was 82 million yuan, + 33% of the same period last year. The company plans to issue convertible bonds in two investment projects "annual output of 124000 tons of nylon new materials project" and subsidiary Shandong polymerization of Shunxin materials "annual output of 80,000 tons of nylon new materials (nylon 66) project". At present, the approval and filing procedures for project establishment and environmental assessment have been carried out, and the land required for the project has been obtained. With the advance of the project construction, the company, as the domestic leading enterprise of nylon 6, has further enhanced its production capacity and market competitiveness. at the same time, nylon 66 is also the improvement of the company's product sequence to better meet market demand, and the company's long-term growth space can be expected.
Profit forecast: based on the impact of 2023H1's operating conditions and macro demand on product prices and capacity utilization, we adjust our profit forecast. We expect the company's return net profit from 2023 to 2025 to be 244 million yuan, 363 million yuan and 464 million yuan respectively (the previous forecast is 3.5 yuan and 427 million yuan for 23-24 years), and the corresponding PE is 12.0,8.1,6.3 times respectively. Maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: raw material supply and price fluctuation risk, environmental protection and safety risk, project construction risk not up to expectation, untimely information update, etc.