Investment points: the company's investment banking business ranks high and IPO reserves are rich. Increase the code research business, and take the investment bank as the traction, research as the drive to promote the synergy of various businesses. The investment strategy is sound and high investment returns are obtained. A sharp reversal in the company's proprietary business contributed to an improvement in performance in the first half of 2023. The target price is 11.26 yuan, maintaining the "better than the market" rating.
[event] Guojin Securities released its results for the first half of 2023: the company achieved operating income of 3.33 billion yuan in the first half of 2023, + 33.0% year-on-year; net profit of 870 million yuan, + 61.1%; corresponding to EPS 0.23 yuan, ROE 2.8%. In the second quarter, the operating income was 1.37 billion yuan,-13.5% compared with the same period last year, and-29.6% compared with the previous quarter. The net profit was 280 million yuan,-33.8% compared with the same period last year, and-53.6% compared with the previous year.
Market activity declined and brokerage business declined in the first half of 2023. In the first half of 2023, the company's brokerage business income was 810 million yuan,-1.2% compared with the same period last year, accounting for 24.4% of the operating income. The average daily stock-based trading volume of the whole market is 1.0271 trillion yuan,-2.0% compared with the same period last year.
The company earned 92 million yuan in consignment sales of financial products,-1.0% of the same period last year, accounting for 11.31% of the brokerage business income, and the scale of consignment sales of financial products was 218.6 billion yuan, + 14.8% of the same period last year. The balance of the company is 21.6 billion yuan, 15.1% higher than at the beginning of the year, and the balance of the whole market is 1.5885 trillion yuan, + 3.1% from the beginning of the year. The company refines the fund investment business represented by "Guojin 50" and "Guojin 100", deeply ploughs the personalized configuration service of high net worth customers, and earnestly transforms to the buyer's consultant mode.
Investment banks have rich project reserves, and the quality of project management and practice has been continuously strengthened. The company's investment banking revenue in the first half of 2023 was 550 million yuan,-18.0% compared with the same period last year. The underwriting scale of equity business is-29.8% compared with the same period last year, and the underwriting scale of bond business is + 24.4%. The main underwriting scale of equity is 4.17 billion yuan, ranking sixth; among them, 7 are IPO with a fund-raising scale of 2.8 billion yuan, and 4 with a refinancing scale of 1.3 billion yuan. The main underwriting scale of bonds is 49 billion yuan, ranking 27th, of which corporate bonds, ABS and corporate bonds are 42.8 billion yuan, 2.8 billion yuan and 1.9 billion yuan respectively. There are 40 IPO reserve projects, ranking 8th, including 15 main boards of two cities, 1 Beijing Stock Exchange, 15 gem and 9 Science and Technology Innovation Board.
With the improvement of the scale of asset management in 2022, the structured financing business has the advantage of first-mover. The company's asset management income in the first half of 2023 was 50 million yuan,-29.8% compared with the same period last year. The size of assets under management is 103.5 billion yuan,-17.2% compared with the same period last year. At present, the investment types of company's asset management issued products include many equity orders, quantitative investment, fixed income, fixed income +, FOF/MOM and so on. Structural financing business relies on the first batch of domestic participation advantages, basic assets cover enterprise accounts receivable, leased assets, factoring assets, REITs, CMBS and many other types, and in a number of sub-areas in the forefront of the industry.
The company's self-management reversed sharply in the first half of 2023. In the first half of 2023, the company's investment income (including fair value) was 980 million yuan, + 720.8% compared with the same period last year; in the second quarter, the investment income (including fair value) was 260 million yuan,-31.5% compared with the same period last year. In terms of fixed-income proprietary business, the company continues to refine credit risk management, increase resource investment in low-risk arbitrage business, and improve transaction flexibility. At the same time, the company strives to broaden financing channels, refine debt management, and achieve a better return on investment. In terms of equity proprietary business, the company adheres to a sound investment style, continuously transforms the investment model, constantly optimizes the investment strategy direction, improves the transaction strategy, and significantly improves the investment efficiency.
Investment advice: we estimate that the EPS of the company in 2023-25e is 0.45, 0.57, 0.62 yuan (originally 0.60, 0.65, 0.70), and the BVPS is 8.66, 9.10, 9.63 (8.66, 9.21, 9.82) respectively. With reference to the valuation level of the comparable company, we gave it a "better than the market" rating of 1.3x Pmax B in 2023, corresponding to the target price of 11.26 yuan (originally 10.39 yuan, and 1.2 x Pmax B in 2023, 8%).
Risk hint: the trading volume continues to decline, and the volatility of the equity market leads to a continuous decline in investment income.