Main points of investment
The high increase in production and sales superimposed Xinyuan and table-driven income growth, raw materials provision impairment performance under pressure in the first half of 2023, the company achieved operating income of 8.13 billion yuan, an increase of 2.09% over the same period last year; net profit of-409 million yuan, down 171.97% over the same period last year; deduction of non-homed net profit of-412 million yuan, down 172.43% over the same period last year.
The revenue growth in the first half of the year was mainly due to the increase in sales of pre-baked anodes and the increase in operating income due to the consolidation of Xinyuan shares; in addition, the prices of raw materials were in a downward range, affected by the production cycle, operating costs lagged behind changes in market prices of raw materials and products, and the company prepared for inventory price decline, and net profit decreased significantly compared with the same period last year.
Join hands with EGA to lay out the production base in the United Arab Emirates, speed up the progress of anode going to sea in the first half of 2023, the company has built a pre-baked anode production capacity to achieve full capacity operation, 2023 operating capacity of 2.82 million tons, the first half of the year sales of 1.4209 million tons, an increase of 12.28% over the same period last year, including export sales of 294800 tons. In terms of new production capacity, Suotong Yun Aluminum 900kt/a carbon material project (Phase II 300kt/a) capacity release; the company and UAE Global Aluminum (EGA) signed a memorandum of understanding on investment, the proposed joint venture in the United Arab Emirates to build a pre-baked anode production base, anode sea speed up.
The negative electrode production capacity is gradually put into production, the global petroleum coke layout energizing negative electrode + anode double main industry in the first half of the year, the company produced 12900 tons of lithium negative electrode products and sold 9400 tons of lithium negative electrode products. Inner Mongolia Xinyuan newly built 40,000 tons graphitization project and Shengyuan negative electrode project first phase graphitization capacity of 25000 tons, the end of the year is expected to form 80,000 tons of negative material production capacity. In terms of petroleum coke, the company reached a North American logistics terminal and petroleum coke storage business cooperation with IMT, providing one-stop solutions for cargo logistics and terminal storage management for upstream petroleum and petrochemical refineries, expanding the company's global petroleum coke procurement channels, and is expected to further reduce raw material procurement and logistics costs, enabling both negative and anode industries.
Profit forecast and valuation
Downgrade earnings forecast and maintain "buy" rating. Domestic prebaked anode faucet, negative electrode to create the second growth curve. Taking into account the impairment of raw material inventory and the price decline of anode 23 in the first half of the year, we downgrade the company's profit forecast for 23-24. The estimated net profit for 23-24 is 0.93 yuan and 1.059 billion yuan (before the reduction in 23-24, it is 20.80 yuan and 3.061 billion yuan respectively), and the new 25-year net profit is forecast to be 1.989 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS 0.17,1.96,3.68 yuan per share. The PE corresponding to the current stock price is 106,9 and 5 times, respectively. Maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk hint
The price of raw materials fluctuated sharply, the market competition intensified, and the progress of customer verification of negative products was lower than expected.