[summary of the research report]
Railway: the three targets of the railway have different styles and have both defense and attack.
Highway: focus on dividend defense and steady growth.
Port: container port pays attention to business extension, bulk cargo port pays attention to railway that benefits from public transfer railway: from an investment point of view, 1)Daqin RailwaySteady performance and high dividend, which still has the value of defensive allocation; 2)Guangzhou-Shenzhen RailwayIt is expected to release profits from the storage of the Shipai land for 19 years, and the current PB is only about 0.8 times with high β elasticity.
3)Iron dragon logisticsIn the future, we will benefit from the growth of superimposed special boxes on the Sha-Ba line, and the business two-wheel drive will maintain double-digit growth rate, which is of offensive game value.
Highway: investment two lines, 1) dividend defense, eastern coastal high-speed enterprises have good cash flow, with the characteristics of sound performance and high dividends, Guangdong Expressway,Nanjing-Shanghai Expressway、 Deep highwayThe cash dividend ratio in 2018 is 70%, 53% and 45% respectively, which has the value of defensive layout. 2) steady growth, the growth rate of high-speed enterprises in the national layout comes from two levels, on the one hand, the original growth of existing road products. on the other hand, it is the extension growth of the acquisition of road products, the overall growth rate is higher than that of the industry, steady growth.Investment promotion highway及Shandong highwayIt has the characteristics of steady growth.
Port: China's coastal ports have regional attributes, which bring the characteristics of goods. From the characteristics of goods, the main foreign trade container ports and bulk ports. The main results are as follows: 1) Container is more dependent on the rear logistics supply chain service of the port, and the supply chain business behind the container port has relatively high growth capacity and room for growth.Qingdao PortActively layout logistics and freight forwarding business, with high growth rate of business extension. 2) the policy of "transit railway" has brought about the structural adjustment of the northern bulk ports, benefiting the ports rich in railway resources in the rear.Rizhao PortRelying on the volume of the rear watri line, in addition, the iron and steel base near Rizhao Port has been put into production one after another, and the throughput is deterministic upward, which has the value of status and layout.
The market believes that: railways, highways, ports and other plates are less elastic and only defensive, which is not suitable for investment in the upward period of the market.
We believe that the three plates of railways, highways and ports as a whole are relatively robust, but the plates are dismantled or only look at the targets, and they are both offensive and defensive in investment. The railway freight target and the eastern coastal highway target have the characteristics of high dividend and defensive allocation. However, the target of railway passenger transport has high β by virtue of PB valuation, the national layout of the high-speed leading investment highway has steady growth, Shandong Expressway, which is out of profit, has room for valuation and repair, the container port with extended business and the bulk cargo port benefiting from public transfer railway show high growth, all of which have the value of growth and offensive layout.