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东方日升(300118):组件、储能双轮驱动业绩超预期 HJT产能落地持续推进

Dongfang Risheng (300118): Two-wheel drive performance of components and energy storage exceeds expectations, and HJT production capacity continues to advance

浙商證券 ·  Sep 20, 2023 07:32

Key points of investment

Demand for photovoltaics remains high, and the company's performance is growing rapidly

2023H1 achieved revenue of 17.607 billion yuan, an increase of 39.56% over the previous year; net profit of 861 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70.65%, a gross profit margin of 13.45%, and a net interest rate of 5.00%. 2023Q2 achieved revenue of 10.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.38%, and a month-on-month increase of 59.80%; net profit of 550 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 88.53%, a month-on-month increase of 77.02%; gross profit margin of 14.12%, an increase of 1.73 pcts; and a net interest rate of 5.17%, an increase of 0.46pcts. 2023H1, the company's performance achieved rapid growth, mainly because the price center of the photovoltaic industry chain moved downward in the first half of the year, and the decline in costs stimulated the release of demand for terminal equipment. Relying on its core competitive advantages, the company actively consolidated and expanded the company's global market share, and sales of component products increased significantly.

Solar cell modules: Production capacity construction projects continue to advance. HJT batteries have an obvious advantage in 2023H1. The company's components shipped 8.37 GW, and battery modules achieved revenue of 13.815 billion yuan, an increase of 40.19% over the previous year, accounting for 78.46% of revenue; gross profit margin was 11.36%. As of 2023H1, the company's annual photovoltaic module production capacity is 25GW. In the second half of the year, it will continue to promote the first phase of the 15GW N-type ultra-low carbon high-efficiency heterojunction cell and 15GW high-efficiency solar module project in Ninghai, Zhejiang, the 4GW high-efficiency solar cell and 6GW high-efficiency solar module project, and the first phase of the 10GW high-efficiency solar cell project in Chuzhou, Anhui. In terms of new electrical technology, the conversion efficiency of the company's self-developed heterojunction batteries exceeded 26.00%, the conversion efficiency of heterojunction modules exceeded 23.89%, and the first-year attenuation rate did not exceed 1.00%. Relying on heterojunction battery technology, the ultra-low carbon 210HJT Fuxi series of products has high power and high conversion efficiency, and uses cost reduction measures such as thin silicon wafers and low silver slurry to control costs. The competitive advantage is obvious.

Silicon and energy storage business: Silicon prices bottomed out, profit declined, and the energy storage integration business continued to expand 2023H1. The company shipped 0.48 million tons of silicon, achieving revenue of 648 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33.67%; gross profit margin was 45.59%, a year-on-year decrease of 14.25 pcts, the price of 2023H1 silicon material dropped significantly, and the profitability of the silicon business declined to a certain extent. 2023H1, the company's energy storage, lighting and auxiliary photovoltaic products business achieved revenue of 1,603 billion yuan, an increase of 133.35% over the previous year; the gross profit margin was 18.82%. The company's energy storage system integration business was widely recognized by customers at home and abroad for its mature overall solutions and strong delivery and service capabilities.

Profit forecasting and valuation

Maintain profit forecasts and maintain “buy” ratings. The company is a leading global photovoltaic module enterprise, leading the industrialization process of HJT high-efficiency batteries in the industry. With the implementation of the company's HJT high-efficiency batteries and the rapid expansion of the energy storage business, the company's performance is expected to grow rapidly. We maintain the company's profit forecast. We expect to achieve net profit of 18.94, 25.09, and 3,269 million yuan respectively in 2023-2025. The corresponding EPS is 1.66, 2.20, and 2.87 yuan, and the corresponding PE is 11.48, 8.67, and 6.65 times, respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.

Risk warning

PV demand fell short of expectations; HJT production capacity fell short of expectations; energy storage profitability fell short of expectations.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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