富途早报 | “末日博士”鲁比尼称将做空美股:今年剩余时间或下跌10%;遭高盛下调盈利预期,特斯拉隔夜跌超3%

Futu Morning Post | “Doctor Doomsday” Roubini says he will short US stocks: it may fall 10% for the rest of the year; profit expectations were lowered by Goldman Sachs, and Tesla fell more than 3% overnight

Futu News ·  09/19 08:03

Hot news

  • “New Federal Reserve News Agency” latest warning: “soft landing” target faces quadruple threat

“New Federal Reserve News Agency” and “Fed mouthpiece” Nick Timiraos wrote on Monday that although there has been an increase in the possibility of achieving a soft landing, this is by no means easy, and the Fed's situation is still like walking on thin ice. This goal is facing four threats: the Fed keeps interest rates too high for too long, economic growth accelerates, energy prices rise, or a financial crisis breaks out.

  • “Doctor Doomsday” Roubini says he will short US stocks: it may fall 10% for the rest of the year

Nouriel Roubini (Nouriel Roubini), a well-known economist, said on Monday that he will short the US stock market for the rest of the year, and reiterated his prediction that US stocks may fall 10% during this time. It said that although the current inflation rate in the US may be low, at 3.7%, it is a misunderstanding in the market that the Fed will start cutting interest rates soon.

  • US Treasury Secretary Yellen: There is no sign that the US economy is about to decline; it is still too early to judge the impact of the automobile industry strike

US Treasury Secretary Yellen said that the US labor market is good and strong, and companies have a high demand for workers. At the same time, Yellen acknowledged that the labor market has weakened and is cooling down, but pointed out that there are no large-scale layoffs, and the job vacancy data is still high, indicating that the job market is healthy, but it is not as hot as it used to be.

When asked about the US auto industry strike, Yellen said that the Biden administration expects the two sides to fight every second to get a solution. It is still too early to tell what kind of impact this incident may have on the economy. This will largely depend on how long the strike lasts and who is actually affected.

  • The total amount of US Treasury bonds exceeded 33 trillion US dollars for the first time, and China reduced its holdings of US debt by 13.6 billion US dollars in July

On September 18, local time, according to data released by the US Treasury Department, the total amount of US Treasury bonds exceeded 33 trillion US dollars for the first time on the 18th. The US Treasury bonds held by China in July were 821.8 billion US dollars, a decrease of 13.6 billion US dollars over the previous month, a decrease of 13.6 billion US dollars over the previous month. This is the fourth month in a row that holdings have been reduced.

  • Saudi Arabia says OPEC does not set oil price targets, focuses on stabilizing the market, and reviews production targets month by month

Saudi Energy Minister and Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said that OPEC is working to maintain the stability of the oil market and improve global energy security, and has not set any specific targets for crude oil price levels. Saudi Aramco's CEO predicts that crude oil demand will reach a record high of 103 million to 104 million b/d in the second half of this year, and the prediction that oil usage will soon peak has proven unrealistic.

Resumption of US stock trading

  • Waiting for the Fed's decision, the three major stock indexes fluctuated sideways throughout the day, and Tesla fell more than 3%

On Monday EST, the three major stock indexes fluctuated slightly throughout the day and closed several times. The market is focusing on the Fed's monetary policy meeting this week. This meeting is expected to set the tone for the US stock market for the rest of this year.

Big tech stocks had mixed ups and downs, with Netflix, Microsoft, and Amazon falling slightly; Apple rose more than 1%, while Nvidia, Google, and Meta rose slightly. Popular Chinese securities have had mixed ups and downs. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 0.57%, Xiaopeng Motor and Pinduoduo rose slightly, Ideal Auto fell more than 2%, and JD and NIO fell more than 1%.

  • Sings the opposite song with Dama! Goldman Sachs expects Tesla's price war to continue, lowering profit expectations, with the latter falling by more than 3%

Last week, Morgan Stanley released a very optimistic forecast.$Tesla(TSLA.US)$It surged more than 10% on the same day. However, Goldman Sachs believes that Tesla may further cut prices in 2024 to support higher sales volume, which will reduce the increase in earnings per share brought about by lower costs. The bank lowered Tesla's earnings per share forecast for this year and next two years from the previous 3.00 US dollars/4.25 US dollars to 2.90 US dollars/4.15 US dollars, respectively. Goldman Sachs believes that even with price cuts, Tesla's sales volume in the third quarter will still fall short of previous expectations, but delivery volume will rebound in the fourth quarter. By the close, Tesla had dropped more than 3%.

  • Unity, the “shovel seller” of the metaverse, will continue to push for a new fee policy after apologizing, and the stock price decline has not stopped

Known as the “metaverse shovel seller”$Unity Software(U.US)$The stock price of Unity, a 2D/3D engine developer, fell nearly 8% again overnight. Obviously, the controversy caused by the company's new fee policy continues. Unity posted a post on Sunday evening local time apologizing for the confusion and anger caused by the announcement. The point is that the company is not withdrawing this policy, but rather announces that it will make adjustments to the policy within the next few days.

  • Will Tesla build a new factory in Saudi Arabia? Musk denounces the report: It's totally fake news!

On Monday, September 18, EST, some media quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that Saudi Arabia and$Tesla(TSLA.US)$Negotiations have been made to build an electric vehicle manufacturing plant in the Kingdom. Negotiations are still in the early stages, and Saudi Arabia's actions will help diversify the domestic economy. Musk, on the other hand, posted on social media X, which was originally known as Twitter, denounced the report about preliminary negotiations between Tesla and Saudi Arabia to build a factory as “another completely false article,” and included a screenshot of the title and summary of the report and when it was posted.

  • Arm closed down more than 4%, and analysts say its revenue growth expectations are too optimistic

MONDAY$Arm Holdings(ARM.US)$The stock price fell 4.5%. Earlier, Bernstein rated the company as “outperforming the market,” with a target price of $46, suggesting that the company might not benefit from the AI boom as expected by some investors. The target price given by Bernstein means that the stock price will weaken further. The analyst wrote, “Although the expectation that Arm will benefit from the growth of artificial intelligence may bring a premium to the stock price, we think it is still too early to announce that Arm is the winner in the AI field. As the mobile terminal market matures, we think our expectations for revenue growth are too optimistic.”

  • NIO fell more than 6% after the market, announcing that it plans to issue $1 billion convertible senior bonds

$NIO Inc(NIO.US)$According to the announcement, NIO announced that it intends to issue convertible senior bonds with a total principal amount of 500 million US dollars due in 2029 and convertible senior bonds with a total principal amount of 500 million US dollars due in 2030, depending on market conditions and other factors. As of press release, NIO fell more than 6% after the market.

  • With only three days left for Microsoft's fall product launch, the chief product officer suddenly announced his departure

A traditional tech giant and a leader in the AI field$Microsoft(MSFT.US)$The fall product launch conference will be held on Thursday local time. Microsoft's chief product officer Panos Panay (Panos Panay), who is in charge of the Windows and Surface business lines, was supposed to be the main character of the week, but at this juncture, he announced his departure news. According to the latest information from people familiar with the matter before the press release, Panay's next home is likely to be Amazon, and he will take over the Alexa and Echo product lines.

Top 20 Overnight US Stock Turnover

Hong Kong Market Outlook

  • Beishui bought more than HK$8.7 billion in Hong Kong stocks and raised funds for Hong Kong stock ETFs

On September 18 (Monday), Southbound Capital made a net purchase of HK$8.733 billion in Hong Kong stocks.

$TRACKER FUND OF HONG KONG(02800.HK)$,$CSOP Hang Seng TECH Index ETF(03033.HK)$,$Hang Seng H-Share Index ETF(02828.HK)$Net purchases were HK$3,838 million, HK$612 million and HK$302 million respectively.

Today's attention

Keywords: RBA September Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, Total Annualized Number of New US Housing Starts

On Tuesday, in terms of economic data,The US will release the new housing commencement data for August.

The US Department of Commerce announced that the number of new housing starts in July increased to an equivalent annual rate of 1.452 million units. Economists' previous estimate was 1.45 million units, compared to 1.398 million units in June.

Although the number of housing starts surged in July compared to the previous month, which helped to reduce the pressure of “running out of stock” in the housing market, mortgage interest rates are once again approaching a 20-year high, which may become a stumbling block to the recovery of the housing market.

In terms of new shares,America's largest grocery delivery platform$Instacart, Inc. (Maplebear Inc.)(CART.US)$It is scheduled to be listed on the NASDAQ on September 19.

Earlier, Instacart announced that it would raise the initial public offering (IPO) price range from $26 to $28 per share from the previous $26 to $28 per share to $28 to $30 per share. The company will issue 22 million shares, seek to raise up to US$660 million, and the company's valuation will be between US$9.3 billion and US$9.9 billion.

Also, the domestic press conference for the Honor V Purse will be held at 19:00 on September 19. At that time, the configuration and price information of this new folding screen phone will be officially announced. On the same day, the OECD will release the Economic Outlook Report.


Niu Niu Chen read:

If you're in trouble, don't shout about your mistakes; learn from them.
—Bill Gates


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