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Will interest rates be raised this year? This is not the biggest problem facing the Fed

Golden10 Data · Sep 18, 2023 21:16

来源：金十数据

美联储将于本周举行会议，即使利率没有任何变化，这场会议也可能很重要。

在过去一年半里将关键联邦基金利率目标提高5.25个百分点之后，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）周四几乎肯定会维持其关键利率区间5.25%至5.5%。大多数评论家一直关注这样的问题：正如FOMC最近的经济预测摘要（SEP）所暗示的那样，年底前是否可能再次加息25个基点。

但这可能忽略了真正的重点——美联储在2024年及以后的政策走向。Brean Capital首席经济顾问John Ryding认为，比利率会升至多高更重要的是利率会维持在峰值水平多久。Ryding是美联储的长期观察人士，曾在美联储和英国央行任职。

SEP料出现重大修改

最近的SEP表明，美联储将在今年年底前将联邦基金利率再上调25个基点，预测中值达到5.6%，并将在较长的时间内维持在这一水平附近。相比之下，根据CME FedWatch工具，联邦基金期货市场预计年底前加息的可能性约为40%，而按兵不动的可能性约为60% 。

从降息预期来看，SEP的预测中值显示，美联储到2024年底将降息一个百分点，至4.6%。但围绕这一“共识”的预测范围则很广，从4.4%到5.1%不等。相比之下，联邦基金期货市场预计2024年12月的利率将达到4.58%，跟美联储的预测中值相近。

最新的SEP预测是在6月14日发布的，更新的SEP将于本周为期两天的FOMC会议结束时公布。鉴于经济表现好于美联储的预期，这应该意味着6月份SEP将出现一些重大修改。

美国银行经济学家预计2023年第四季度实际国内生产总值（GDP）增长率预测将从的1%上调至2%；预计年底失业率将从4.1%修正至3.8%，与8月份的数据一致。至于通胀，美国银行经济学家认为，最近的数据导致第四季度核心PCE平减指数预测降至3.7%，6月份的估计为3.9%。基本上，这些数字都将根据最近的数据进行调整。

降息预测太乐观了？

如前所述，最重要的消息将是FOMC目前对2024年的展望。除了联邦基金期货市场，许多经济学家也认为美联储届时将降息。一种流行的观点是，如果通胀按照FOMC的预测回落，那么未及时降息将导致（经通胀调整的）实际利率上升带来的“被动”、可能是无意的紧缩。6月份的SEP预计，美联储最喜欢的通胀指标——核心PCE明年将显著放缓至2.6%，进入美联储2%的长期目标范围内。

但Ryding在接受采访时表示，预计明年有四次25个基点的降息“可能有点太多了”。美联储为降低通胀付出了高昂的代价，而且迄今为止表现良好。对于货币当局来说，保持利率不变并等待需要时降息会更容易。

他补充道，政策制定者最不想做的就是在过早降低利率后再次加息，这是美联储在上世纪70年代走的老路。过早降息还可能带来金融不稳定的风险，特别是如果它们引发风险资产反弹，从而过度放松金融状况。

巴伦周刊指出，对于投资者来说，应该关注的是FOMC对2024年的展望，而不是2023年。TD Cowen Washington Research Group的负责人克里斯•克鲁格（Chris Krueger）上周在一份客户报告中还警告，在本周的会议之后，如果联邦政府停摆导致随后的经济数据发布受阻，FOMC可能会在10月31日至11月1日的会议上“两眼一抹黑”。更重要的是，明年降息的前提是通胀持续放缓，而如今原油价格大幅上涨可能影响到其他成本，就像几家航空公司上周发出的警告所表明的那样。

尽管超低利率时代已经结束，但美国经济仍继续无视衰退预测。所有这些都表明，FOMC可能会在更长时间内将利率维持在较高水平。

被忽视的焦点——中性利率

关于美联储是否会维持高利率多长时间的争论，被忽视的另一个焦点是长期均衡实际联邦基金利率（经济学家将其称为“R*”，即“R-star”），在扣除假定的2%长期通胀率后，FOMC基本上假设R*为0.5% 。

然而，R*是否仍然是美联储假设的0.5%，还有待商榷。毕竟，这个既不会促进经济也不会抑制经济的利率水平是无法实时观察到的。

Ryding想知道，当市场估计R*已升至2%左右时，为什么美联储的估计仍是0.5% 。

认为R*上升的原因之一是巨额联邦预算赤字。他表示，Macroeconomics 101认为，财政扩张将会提高R*，除非美联储允许额外的借贷。

不过，美联储现在正在做相反的事情，即减少其持有的国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券（MBS），让私营部门为联邦政府的巨额借款提供更多融资。在其他条件相同的情况下，这应该意味着更高的利率水平。

Ryding表示，这是美联储必须开始解决的一个长期问题，不过他补充说，这不太可能在下周的会议上发生。

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Source: Golden Ten Data

The Federal Reserve will hold a meeting this week, and even if interest rates don't change, this meeting could be important.

After raising the key federal funds rate target by 5.25 percentage points over the past year and a half, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will almost certainly maintain its key interest rate range of 5.25% to 5.5% on Thursday. Most commentators have been concerned about whether it is possible to raise interest rates by another 25 basis points before the end of the year, as the FOMC's recent summary of economic forecasts (SEP) suggests.

But that probably misses the real point --The Fed's policy direction for 2024 and beyond. According to John Ryding, chief economic adviser to Brean Capital,How high will the interest rate rise and what is more important is how long will the interest rate remain at its peak level. Ryding is a long-time observer of the Federal Reserve and has worked for the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.

SEP materials have undergone major changes

According to the recent SEP, the Fed will raise the federal funds rate by another 25 basis points by the end of this year, forecast a median value of 5.6%, and remain close to this level for a long time. By contrast, according to the CME FedWatch tool, the federal funds futures market expects an interest rate hike before the end of the year to be around 40%, while the probability of standing still is around 60%.

Judging from interest rate cut expectations, SEP's median forecast shows that the Fed will cut interest rates by 1 percentage point to 4.6% by the end of 2024. However, predictions surrounding this “consensus” range widely, ranging from 4.4% to 5.1%. In contrast, the federal funds futures market expects interest rates to reach 4.58% in December 2024, which is close to the median forecast of the Federal Reserve.

The latest SEP forecast was released on June 14, and the updated SEP will be announced at the end of this week's two-day FOMC meeting. Given that the economy is performing better than expected by the Federal Reserve, this should meanThere will be some major changes to the June SEP.

Bank of America economists expectReal gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate forecast for the fourth quarter of 2023It will be raised from 1% to 2%; expectedUnemployment rate at year endIt will be revised from 4.1% to 3.8%, which is consistent with the August data. As for inflation, Bank of America economists believe recent data is causingFourth quarter core PCE deflator forecastIt fell to 3.7%, and the June estimate was 3.9%. Basically, these numbers will all be adjusted based on recent data.

Are interest rate cut predictions too optimistic?

As mentioned, the most important news will be the FOMC's current outlook for 2024. In addition to the federal funds futures market, many economists also think that the Fed will cut interest rates at that time. A popular view is that if inflation falls as predicted by the FOMC, then failure to cut interest rates in time will lead to “passive” and possibly unintentional austerity brought about by rising real interest rates (adjusted for inflation). The June SEP predicts that the Fed's favorite inflation indicator, the core PCE, will slow significantly to 2.6% next year, entering the Fed's long-term target range of 2%.

However, Ryding said in an interview that it is expectedInterest rate cuts of 25 basis points four times next year “may be a bit too much”. The Federal Reserve has paid a high price to reduce inflation and has performed well so far. It would be easier for monetary authorities to keep interest rates constant and wait for interest rate cuts when needed.

He added,The last thing policymakers want is to lower interest rates too soon and then raise interest rates againThis is the old path taken by the Federal Reserve in the 70s of the last century.Cutting interest rates too soon may also pose a risk of financial instability, particularly if they trigger a rebound in risky assets, thereby easing the financial situation excessively.

Barron's pointed out that for investors, what they should focus on is the FOMC's outlook for 2024, not 2023. Chris Krueger (Chris Krueger), head of TD Cowen Washington Research Group, also warned in a client report last week that after this week's meeting, if the federal government shutdown blocks subsequent economic data release, the FOMC may “lose sight of both eyes” at the October 31 to November 1 meeting. More importantly,The premise for cutting interest rates next year is that inflation continues to slow down.But today's sharp rise in crude oil prices could affect other costs, as several airlines warned last week.

Although the era of ultra-low interest rates is over, the US economy continues to ignore recession predictions. All of this shows thatThe FOMC is likely to keep interest rates high for a longer period of time.

An overlooked focus — neutral interest rates

The debate over whether the Fed will maintain high interest rates for how long,Another overlooked focus is the long-term equalization of real federal funds interest rates(Economists call this “R*,” or “R-star”). After deducting an assumed long-term inflation rate of 2%, the FOMC basically assumes R* is 0.5%.

However, whether R* is still 0.5% as assumed by the Federal Reserve remains open to debate. After all, this level of interest rate, which neither boosts nor stifles the economy, cannot be observed in real time.

Ryding wanted to know why the Fed's estimate was still 0.5% when the market estimated R* had risen to around 2%.

I think one of the reasons for the rise in R* is the huge federal budget deficit. He said Macroeconomics 101 believes that fiscal expansion will raise R* unless the Fed allows additional borrowing.

However, the Federal Reserve is now doing the opposite, reducing its holdings of treasury bonds and institutional mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to allow the private sector to provide more financing for the federal government's massive borrowings. All else being equal, this should mean a higher level of interest rates.

Ryding said,This is a long-term issue that the Fed must begin to resolve, but he added that this is unlikely to happen at next week's meeting.

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