Global macroscopic

• Before Monday's session, the three major indices fell collectively before the market

• “Super Central Bank Week” is coming

The Federal Reserve will announce its September interest rate decision at 2:00 a.m. on Thursday, Beijing time. The market generally expects a 99% chance of suspending interest rate hikes. Investors and economists will pay close attention to economic forecasts and bitmaps published simultaneously by policymakers. According to a previous survey, economists generally expect that the strong resilience of the US economy will prompt the Fed to retain the “option of raising interest rates once more this year” in the bitmap. At the same time, the market focus has switched from “how high” interest rates are to “how long” they will be maintained. Furthermore, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday, and the Bank of Japan's policy meeting on Friday is the focus of attention in the Asian market this week.

• Goldman Sachs: The Fed will not raise interest rates in November; it will raise the economic growth forecast to 2.1%

Goldman Sachs strategists said that the Fed is unlikely to raise interest rates on this week's interest rate decision, and also predicts that the Fed will raise economic growth expectations at this meeting. Goldman Sachs strategist wrote, “In November, we think further rebalancing of the labor market, good news on inflation, and likely an upcoming fourth-quarter economic slump will convince more participants that the Federal Open Market Committee can forego the last rate hike this year.” Furthermore, Goldman Sachs strategists added that if inflation continues to cool down, there may be a “gradual” interest rate cut next year. On the macroeconomic side, Goldman Sachs expects that the Fed may raise its forecast for US economic growth in 2023 from 1% to 2.1% to reflect the resilience of the US economy.

• Will the US government shut down again? If no agreement is reached, it will be closed at the end of the month

On Monday, according to media reports, the differences between the two parties in the US have deepened and are still struggling over budget issues. Only one of the 12 annual spending bills that fund the government has been approved. In order to avoid a shutdown, with only 10 working days left, Congress needs to pass a temporary funding bill to ensure that the government can still receive funding after the deadline. If Congress fails to pass the spending bill at midnight on September 30, the US government will face a “shutdown” at that time. The Bank of America believes that the probability of this shutdown is about 50%.

• Betting that the Fed will maintain a hawkish stance, hedge funds are bullish on the US dollar for the first time since March

According to data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the number of net long positions held by leveraged investors reached 18,000 contracts in the week ending September 12, compared to 25,175 net short positions a week ago. This big shift is mainly due to the biggest decline in long positions in the euro since January, as traders are betting that the ECB is about to end the cycle of interest rate hikes.

• Well-known short of Damo: Customers expect US stocks to face a serious situation in 2024

Michael Wilson, a well-known Wall Street short and Morgan Stanley strategist, said that although US stocks have risen sharply this year, supported by strong economic growth, investors are now more pessimistic about the outlook for US stocks in 2024. Michael Wilson said there is a growing debate among Morgan Stanley customers whether the recession has been completely avoided or whether it has only been postponed until 2024. He said, “Most of the clients we spoke with felt 2024 would seem to be a more challenging year for risk assets such as the stock market compared to 2023.”

• Bridgewater Dalio: Economic headwinds will continue to “rage”. Let's take a closer look at those AI application “top students”

Ray Dalio (Ray Dalio), an American billionaire investor and founder of Bridgewater, said that due to ongoing economic and geopolitical instability, new investors should have a diversified and diversified investment portfolio. At the conference, Dalio also mentioned the development of artificial intelligence. He suggested that investors invest in companies that apply this new technology rather than those that create this new technology. “We're going to enter a different world. And disruptors will be subverted. I don't need to select the people who are creating the new technology; I need to actually select the people who are using it in the best way.”

Hot news

• Star Technology's stock had mixed ups and downs before the market

• Rumor has it that Tesla is sprinting to the layout of the supercomputer Dojo and will expand orders for TSMC

$Tesla(TSLA.US)$Sprint through the “Dojo” supercomputer layout, it is rumored that cooperation with TSMC will be expanded. The supercomputer chip “D1” uses TSMC's 7-nm family process combined with advanced packaging production. Next year, the number of chips invested by TSMC is expected to double compared to this year, reaching 10,000 pieces. The order volume will continue to expand in 2025, betting on TSMC's high-speed computing (HPC) related order processing power. Regarding related rumors, TSMC said it did not comment on market rumors; Tesla did not immediately respond to questions.

• Weekend reservations are hot! Guo Mingyi shouted for strong demand from Apple. It is expected that the iPhone 15 series will still ship more than 80 million during the year

$Apple(AAPL.US)$Online pre-sales of the new iPhone 15 series began on Friday. Currently, in the mainland China market, the delivery of the iPhone 15 has been delayed until 3-4 weeks later, while the Pro Max will have to wait a longer period of 6-7 weeks. On the X (Twitter) platform, Guo Mingyi posted his observations on pre-orders for the first weekend of the new Apple series. He believes that people's demand for the iPhone 15 Pro Max is quite crazy, and people's enthusiasm for this phone exceeds that of the iPhone 14 Pro Max last year. Insisting that Apple's iPhone 15 series shipments this year will reach 80 million units.

• Micron Technology rose more than 1% ahead of the market and plans to establish multiple semiconductor assembly and packaging departments in India

$Micron Technology(MU.US)$U.S. stocks rose 1.53% before the market to $70.947. India's Minister of Electronics and Information Technology Rajeev Chandrasekhar said that Micron plans to establish several semiconductor assembly and packaging divisions in India. In addition to the proposed manufacturing division, Micron will be optimistic about the Indian market for a long time. Micron previously announced that it would invest 800 million US dollars to establish a semiconductor assembly, testing, marking and packaging (ATMP) department in Sanand, Gujarat.

• Nikola rose more than 4% before the market to expand its heavy truck dealer network to Canada

$Nikola(NKLA.US)$U.S. stocks rose more than 4% before the market to $1.2385. Since it was announced last week that it was ready to deliver hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, it has accumulated a cumulative increase of over 35%. According to the news, Nikola will cooperate with trailer manufacturer ITD Industries to expand the heavy truck sales dealer network to Canada. The company plans to begin delivering hydrogen fuel cell vehicles at the end of September and the beginning of October.

• The “magic medicine for weight loss” smeglutide may treat dementia and alcohol addiction

Smeglutide is a Danish pharmaceutical giant$Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO.US)$The main active ingredient of the developed hypoglycemic drug Ozempic (approved for sale in the US in 2017) and the weight loss drug Wegovy (approved for sale in the US in 2021). It is a GLP-1 receptor agonist that can stimulate insulin secretion, inhibit glucagon secretion to delay gastric emptying and reduce appetite, and ultimately achieve the effect of lowering sugar and weight. Currently, scientists are studying whether this “magic medicine for weight loss” can treat dementia and alcohol addiction. Previously, smeglutide had shown therapeutic effects on cardiovascular disease in some experimental results.

• “Arm Dongfeng” is blowing all over the IPO market! Following Instacart, data provider Klaviyo also raised the IPO price

Marketing and data automation provider, according to people familiar with the matter$Klaviyo, Inc.(KVYO.US)$The initial public offering (IPO) target price range was raised from $25 to $27 to $27 to $29, and it is proposed to sell 19.2 million shares to raise up to $557 million. It is expected that this will be the third large-scale IPO in the US within a week. Previously, a semiconductor design company under the SoftBank Group$Arm Holdings(ARM.US)$Completed the largest IPO this year, up 25% on the first day of listing; online grocery delivery service company$Instacart, Inc. (Maplebear Inc.)(CART.US)$The IPO price range was raised last Friday.

Focus on China Securities

• Popular Chinese securities stocks generally declined before the market

• Bob Van Dyke stepped down as CEO of Prosus, the majority shareholder of Tencent, and a former SoftBank executive took over

9/18,$Tencent(TCEHY.US)$The majority shareholder Prosus and its parent company Naspers announced that CEO Bob van Dijk (Bob van Dijk) stepped down on the same day after nearly ten years in charge of the company. He will continue to serve as an advisor to the board of directors of Prosus and Naspers until the end of September 2024. Prosus appointed Chief Investment Officer Ervin Tu as interim CEO for this period. Two years ago, Tu joined Naspers and Prosus from SoftBank Group. He was previously responsible for mergers and acquisitions at Goldman Sachs. Bob has been CEO of Naspers since 2014 and has been CEO of Prosus since it went public in 2019.

• UBS: Chinese EV companies may expand global production, Europe is a top priority

The head of China Automobile Research at UBS Investment Bank said that by 2030, the global market share of Chinese electric vehicle companies, led by BYD, is likely to double. The bank estimates that China's largest automobile manufacturer, BYD's latest generation model, the BYD Seal, has a gross margin of 16% and a profit margin of 5% before interest and tax. The analyst said that with the advantage of using China as its global production center and high degree of vertical integration, BYD has a 25% sustainable cost advantage over competitors. The bank also anticipates that some of China's leading electric vehicle companies will expand production globally, with Europe being a top priority, as both Europe and China have the most popular market segments: small and compact crossovers and sports utility vehicles.

Top 20 pre-market turnover of US stocks

US Stock Macro Calendar Reminder

22:00 US September NAHB Real Estate Market Index

04:00 Net international capital inflows to the US in July

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