iPhone 15卖爆了!分析师高呼苹果需求强劲,现在回调就是买点?

The iPhone 15 is selling out! Analysts shout that demand for Apple is strong. Is the current pullback just a buying point?

Futu News ·  09/18 21:23

The iPhone changes every year, and Apple's official website also collapses every year.

At 8 p.m. Beijing time on September 15, all iPhone 15 series officially began pre-sale. Immediately, huge traffic hit the official website, and “Apple's official website has collapsed” quickly became popular on Weibo.

In fact, not only domestically, but also in overseas communities on Reddit and Twitter (now X), there are also overseas netizens who pointed out the sluggishness of Apple's official website on the day it went on sale.

According to the official website, currently in the mainland China market, the delivery time of the iPhone 15 has been delayed until 3-4 weeks later, while the Pro Max will have to wait a longer period of 6-7 weeks.

Due to the continued downturn in the global smartphone market and Huawei's first release of the new Mate 60,Demand for new Apple phones has recently been the focus of debate among analysts.However, previously, due to concerns about iPhone 15 sales and other issues, Apple had a cumulative decline of more than 2% since the press conference. It is worth noting that since the second quarterly report was announced, the company's stock price has dropped by more than 8%.

“The Apple Analyst Who Knows Best”Guo Mingyi shouted for strong demand for Apple

The main reason the outside world was not optimistic about the performance of the iPhone 15 series in the domestic market until pre-sale began. But the truth is, the appeal of the iPhone remains undiminished, especially the iPhone 15 Pro and 15 Pro Max models.

Guo Mingyi, an analyst at Tianfeng International Securities, published his observations on pre-orders for the first weekend of the new Apple series.It maintains its target of shipping about 80 million iPhone 15 units this year.The pre-order results for the iPhone 15 were actually about the same as the iPhone 14, but since market expectations had already been lowered first, the iPhone 15 pre-order results were better than what the market feared.

Demand for the iPhone 15 Pro Max was as strong as previously anticipated, superior to last year's iPhone 14 Pro Max.

The demand for the two standard iPhone 15 is about the same as last year.

Demand for the iPhone 15 Pro is weaker than last year. One of the main reasons may be that more advanced users are switching to pre-order the iPhone 15 Pro Max this year.

The iPhone 15 Pro Max has significantly longer wait times than other models, not entirely due to strong demand. Due to the late mass production schedule of the iPhone 15 Pro Max, there are currently few shipments, and the current production problems are significantly more serious than other models.

Other analysts pointed out that the longer waiting period for the iPhone 15 Pro Max also reflects the reality that the model's initial supply is low, and there may be some problems with its display supply chain. However, IDC research director Nabila Popal said,As Pro Max shipments are “highly skewed,” Apple will use full horsepower, which will increase the average unit price of Apple phones.

Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives rated Apple's stock as “outperforming the market,” with a target price of $240. The analyst said,The number of iPhone 15 pre-orders that began on Friday was far higher than the market's general expectations, while at the same time increasing the number of iPhone 14 pre-orders by about 10-12%.

The iPhone 15 Pro/Pro Max is more popular, with Pro Max performing particularly strongly in the US, China, India, and parts of Europe, which bodes well for the average unit sales price (ASP) of the phone.Apple's ASP is estimated to be in the range of $925, up about $100 from the past 12 months.

Credit Suisse's Shannon Cross notes that the estimated delivery time for the new iPhone 15 Pro Max order is longer than last year's iPhone model, which indicatesDemand for this year's models is higher. The analyst believes that deep carriers' discounts and consumers who have had iPhones that haven't been replaced for more than three years have spurred demand for new devices. The analyst maintains a target price of $220 for Apple stock.

Counterpoint Research senior analyst Ivan Lam said that Apple maintains a unique user experience in its ecosystem, which has led to high customer retention rates and engaged usersIt's hard to switch to an Android device.Lam said that due to strong user stickiness, which ensures stable switching demand, Apple will continue to be the winner in the $800 and above smartphone market.

Can it help Apple's stock price start a counterattack model?

Based on historical records, the iPhone press conference was the “darkest hour” for Apple stock. However, over the next few weeks, the market will often provide investors with an excellent opportunity to buy at a lower price.

In the past five years, September has been Apple's worst performing month of the year.Shares fell by an average of 4.5%. In contrast, the S&P 500 index fell 3.2%. At the same time,October was one of the best performing months.Apple's stock price rose by an average of 3.8%.

The information on Futu has also been sorted out before.In the 60 days after the press conference, there was an increase of 9 times from 13 times, with the highest increase of 20%.Because the market will find that no matter how loud the criticism is, there is still an endless flow of people buying a new iPhone.

If investors see the situation clearly after the press conference and see the opportunity within 60 days, as long as they buy Apple before November, their chances of winning money can be as high as 70%.Moreover, holding shares until the traditional peak sales season in the US, such as December and January, is expected to further stimulate the rise in consumer stocks such as Apple.

Normally, from Halloween to Christmas is the peak consumption season. Investors generally believe that iPhone shipments will benefit from the year-end consumer season. If demand is strong,Stock prices will rise in waves before the year-end market comes.

Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives said that this weekend's observation of the Asian supply chain has strengthened market confidence.That is, the number of iPhones shipped during the holiday season (fourth quarter) may be close to 90 million units.Carriers' promotions may help boost sales significantly.

For fiscal year 2024, analysts expect iPhone sales to reach 225 million units, and the average selling price will continue to rise.He added:

This shows Apple's potential demand for the next iPhone release. The Bank estimates that out of 1.2 billion iPhone users worldwide, more than 250 million have not upgraded their phones in more than 4 years.


Cow friends,

Are you optimistic about the sales volume of the iPhone 15?

Can it help Apple's stock price usher in a wave of counterattack?

Welcome to leave your thoughts in the comments area~


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