森马服饰(002563):盈利改善明显 收入仍有所承压

Semir Apparel (002563): Profits have improved markedly and revenue is still under pressure

長江證券 ·  09/17

Event description

The company's 2023H1 realized revenue, return to the mother, and deducted non-55.6,5.2,480 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of-1.4%, 393.9% and 1818.2%.

Of this total, Q2 revenue rose 9.7% to 2.56 billion yuan compared with the same period last year, while its mother reversed losses of 310 million to 205 million yuan, and deducted non-reversing losses of 350 million to 187 million yuan.

Event comment

The recovery of direct operation is better, while the rest of the channels are weak.

Sub-channel, 2023H1 main business direct + 22%, join + 7.4%, e-commerce-6.4%. Under the improvement of low base superimposed passenger flow, the direct operation channel returned to better growth, which has basically returned to the 2021H1 level. The weaker performance of the franchisee is expected to be due to the weak willingness to pick up goods under the cautious ordering of 2022H2 and the inventory of 2023H1 digestion channels, but the H1 recovery is slightly better than the performance of the industry. The weak performance of e-commerce is expected to be caused by a sharp increase in the discount rate and an increase in the number of new products under the uniform price of global goods promoted by the company online.

Sub-business, 2023H1 main leisure-15%, children's clothing + 6%. Children's clothing retail and store opening are better than casual wear, but the recovery speed is still weak. There are 53 2023H1 net stores (accounting for 1% of the existing stores, mainly joint-venture stores) and 57 casual wear 2023H1 stores, which are basically the same as in 2022.

The gross profit margin continues to improve, and the operation quality is better.

Gross profit margin: sub-business, H1 main leisure / children's wear gross profit margin + 1.5kg / children's wear gross margin + 3.6pct, expected to mainly benefit from the improvement of discount rate, the increase in the proportion of new products and multiples.

Other: Q2 each expense rate all shows the downward trend, during the expense rate-7.9pct. Sales expense rate-5.6pct is mainly due to the decrease in advertising fees and service fees compared with the same period last year, and the net interest rate is + 12.5pct to 8%.

Inventory: due to the improvement of reasonable stock and moving sales, the company's inventory is-20% / month-on-month-6% to 3.17 billion yuan. From the composition of the book value of inventory, goods account for 14% of goods before 2022, 36% of goods in 2022, 50% of goods in 2023, and the structure is better.

Outlook: in the short term, the company will consolidate its foundation, control discounts, optimize cost delivery, reduce inventory and control cash. With the de-storage of H1 channels, it is expected that the revenue under recovery and delivery will be accelerated, while profits are expected to continue to be highly elastic. For a long time, the company has continued to promote various changes such as brand fashion, channel structure optimization, commodity fast reaction ability and so on, and has promoted internal casual wear reform to stabilize and repair since 2019, and the strengthening of children's wear leading position has brought about an increase in premium.

In addition, the company's strategic layout of overseas business, long-term is expected to replace the domestic as the company's potential performance-valuation drive.

The company is expected to achieve a performance of 10.5,13.7 and 1.56 billion yuan in 2023-2025, corresponding to a PE of 15,12,10X, maintaining a "buy" rating.

Risk hint

1. Fluctuation of retail environment

2. Inventory risk

3. The effect of cost input and transformation is weak.

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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