Industry prices have stabilized and profits have returned to the right track. In the first half of the year, the prices of petroleum coke and pre-baked anodes continued to decline rapidly, and the company's profits were under pressure. At the same time, due to the decline in the prices of raw materials and finished products, the company lost 366 million yuan in asset impairment, which had a greater impact on profits. At present, the prices of pre-baked anode products and petroleum coke have remained stable from June to September. The company's performance is expected to get back on track in the second half of the year.
The project is progressing steadily, with 5 million tons of pre-baked anodes planned for 2025. The company's 2023 pre-baked anode operation capacity of 2.82 million tons, Shandong Innovation Phase II project, Longxi Suotong 300000 tons of aluminum carbon materials project has been officially launched, Qijiang District of Chongqing with an annual output of 250000 tons of high-conductivity and energy-saving aluminum carbon materials and 50, 000 tons of lithium battery high-end anode materials production box plate project is in steady progress.
Imports continue to shrink, domestic inventories continue to be removed, and a shortage of domestic petroleum coke is expected from 2024 to 2025. 2023Q3 domestic petroleum coke imports continue to shrink, although the refined oil market continues to increase the start-up load, but because some enterprises plan to increase the output of petroleum asphalt, the output of petroleum coke affected by raw materials is limited, and the domestic petroleum coke inventory continues to be removed. At the same time, the output of overseas petroleum coke has decreased, while the output of domestic negative electrode and pre-baked anode has increased. It is expected that there will be a shortage of 2024-2025 petroleum coke.
Profit forecast: as the price of petroleum coke and pre-baked anode stabilizes, the company's performance is back on track. We estimate that the return net profit of the company from 2023 to 2025 is 2.38 yuan 10.89 / 1.493 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS 0.44 / 2.01 pound 2.76 yuan, PE 9.0 pound 6.6 times, maintaining the "buy rating".
Risk tip: the price of raw materials continues to fall, the price of pre-baked anode fluctuates sharply, and the project is not as expected.