According to the company's semi-annual report, 23Q2 realized operating income of 2.029 billion yuan, an increase of 2.35%, a net profit of 66 million yuan, a decrease of 8.82%, and a deduction of 61 million yuan, a decrease of 11.46%. 23H1 realized operating income of 3.789 billion yuan, same reduction of 1.22%, realized return net profit of 127 million yuan, same reduction of 6.74%, realized deduction of non-return net profit of 120 million, same reduction of 9.05%. The income growth rate was slightly under pressure in the first half of the year, and the Q2 growth rate returned to positive, mainly due to intensified competition in the industry market, fluctuations in raw material prices and macroeconomic impact on downstream demand. The net cash flow generated by 23H1's operating activities was 690 million, a substantial improvement over the same period last year, with an increase of 343.49%, mainly due to 730 million of customer loans receivable in advance of the current year's accounts receivable ABS project.
The basic disk of 23H1 two-piece can is stable, and the sales of core customers are making steady progress.
For sub-products, 23H1 metal beverage cans / packaging color printing iron achieved revenue of 3.550 million yuan respectively, up 2.01% / 33.92% respectively over the same period last year. Core customers benefited from steady sales and continued to maintain the leading position of production, sales and share. Packaging color printing iron, mainly due to the short-term pressure of downstream demand, revenue declined compared with the same period last year. The company has been deeply engaged in the field of metal packaging for a long time, providing fast response and differentiated products, and with Coca-Cola Company, Pepsi, Snow, Budweiser, Carlsberg, Qingdao, Wang Laoji, Wangwang and other domestic and foreign well-known fast consumer brand core customers, established a strategic cooperative relationship.
Continue to promote the development of overseas business and accelerate the expansion of overseas production capacity.
In 2023, the company will promote the implementation of the "internal and external linkage" strategy, speed up the strategic layout at home and abroad, build new projects and expansion projects, and optimize the product structure. In China, the company has set up production bases in the east, south, north, central, west and other places. Overseas, the company actively responds to the "Belt and Road Initiative" initiative and is based on the internationalization strategy. Recently, it has set up a special overseas division to speed up the development of internationalization, follow brand customers to open up overseas markets and develop new customers.
Profitability is stable and rising, and cost control is effective.
In terms of profitability, 23H1's gross profit margin is 9.16%, with the same increase in 0.48pct and improved profitability, mainly due to the decline in raw material prices compared with the same period last year. 23H1 sales / management / R & D / financial expense rates are 1.13%, 2.66%, 0.1%, 0.17%, respectively, year-on-year changes + 0.2pct/+0.47pct/-0.12pct/-0.3pct, the company's parent net profit rate is 3.36%, minus 0.2pct.
Maintain earnings forecasts and maintain "buy" ratings.
The company is a leading domestic metal packaging enterprise, focusing on the domestic two-piece can market for a long time, and its business layout has continued to expand in recent years. We estimate that the company's EPS from 2023 to 2025 will be 0.27pm 0.33exp 0.37 yuan per share, respectively, and its homing net profit will be 3.05pm 374max RMB 423 million, an increase of 13.6%, 22.9%, 12.9%, and maintain the "Buy" rating.
Risk tips: macro environment and policy change risk; raw material price fluctuation risk; downstream demand pressure; high customer concentration risk.