Main points of investment:
Pre-baked anode faucet, cut into the negative electrode, growth can be expected. Since its establishment in 1998, the company has been ploughing the pre-baked anode business for many years, started the production of pre-baked anode in 2003, and entered the fast lane of expansion after it was listed in 2017. The company has distributed in many places throughout the country, and expanded its business overseas, with a planned production capacity of 5 million tons by 2025. At the same time, the company through self-construction and acquisition of Xinyuan shares, cut into the lithium negative circuit, obvious synergy advantages. In the future, two-wheel drive of carbon materials will be realized and the growth can be expected.
Core focus: scale expansion, negative coordination.
(1) focus on the pre-baked anode industry and continue to expand the production capacity. By the end of 2022, the company has a production capacity of 2.82 million tons and equity capacity of 1.88 million tons. While expanding at home, the business will be extended overseas, and a joint venture with EGA to build a 600000-ton production line of pre-baked anodes in the United Arab Emirates is proposed. The company has long-term experience in serving overseas customers and has smooth sea layout. At present, the company has started construction or planned construction projects to reach 1.54 million tons. According to the company's plan, the contracted production capacity of the company will reach 5 million tons at the end of the 14th five-year Plan, and the growth can be expected.
(2) decentralized procurement and binding of customers. Domestic petroleum coke is highly dependent on imports, and the company has the advantage of global procurement. Domestically, it mainly comes from Petrochina, China Petroleum & Chemical, CNOOC, Jiuquan Iron and Steel Group, etc., with imports from many countries in the Middle East, Europe, North and South America. And the procurement proportion of the top five suppliers is only 29.45% (2022). The procurement sources are scattered, the degree of dependence on suppliers is low, and the supply risk is low. At the same time, the company's pre-baked anode production line is mostly built in cooperation with aluminum enterprises, the capacity distribution is close to the downstream customers, the cost is more economical, and the sales are guaranteed.
(3) the short-term margin is good. The price of petroleum coke, the main raw material of the company, has rebounded, the price of pre-baked anode of the main products has stopped falling, and the inventory impairment factor is expected to be eliminated. at the same time, the recent rise in crude oil prices is also good for the company. The price of petroleum coke reached a high in May 2022, and the price of pre-baked anode reached a high in June 2022, and then both began to enter the downward channel. The price of anode has stabilized since June 2023, and has been 4225 yuan / ton since June (September 15). The price of petroleum coke has also rebounded recently, from the lowest 2489 yuan / ton at the end of June to more than 2800 yuan / ton. it is currently 2721 yuan / ton (September 15), and it is expected that the impact of inventory impairment may be eliminated in the future.
(4) cutting into the negative pole, synergistic advantage. Through the acquisition of Xinyuan shares and self-built production line, the company has cut into the field of lithium anode materials on a large scale. According to the plan, when the project is completed, the negative electrode capacity will reach 315000 tons. Negative electrode production and anode production are highly similar in raw materials, process, equipment and other aspects, and Xinyuan stock team is experienced, with the whole process, integrated production and R & D technology, recognized by customers, at the same time has Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Ningde era, Betteri, Shanshan shares and other major customers. The company has capital, petroleum coke procurement and other advantages, the two sides have obvious advantages of coordination.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we expect the company's net profit from 2023 to 2025 to be 1.20cm 9.81pm, 1.586 million yuan, respectively, compared with the same period last year. The PE of the company is 0.22pm, 1.81pm, 2.93 yuan and 6.17 times, respectively, compared with the same period of the same period last year. Considering the company's pre-baked anode and lithium negative electrode two-wheel drive, the future planning capacity is large, the industry's short-term margin is good, the company's long-term growth is high, and the "overweight" rating is maintained.
Risk hints: (1) downstream demand is lower than expected risk; (2) negative material demand and price decline risk; (3) planned capacity construction and production schedule is not as expected risk; (4) measurement error risk; (5) the risk that the data or information used in the research report is not updated in a timely manner.