Tencent Securities News Beijing time on the evening of July 25, according to the U. S. financial website MarketWatch reported recently, the major U. S. stock index is at a record level. However, investors are uneasy about this.
According to a quarterly investment survey released by North American Trust Asset Management, about 36% of investment managers believe that the US stock market is undervalued or valued at a normal level. The survey, which began in the third quarter of 2008, was the lowest in its history.
Nearly 2/3 of investors-65 per cent of Murray-said the US stock market was overvalued, the highest proportion in the history of the survey.
The survey was conducted within a deadline of June 22. Since then, the s & p 500 has risen 1.5%.
There is also growing concern about valuations in the US stock market after a report said the US stock market was the most expensive in the world. However, the market is not completely bearish on the outlook for the US stock market. The recent rally in US stocks has taken place against a number of favourable backgrounds, such as improved US corporate earnings, a strong labour market and (albeit moderately) positive economic growth.
"although investment managers think the US stock market is overvalued, fundamentals, the rate of GDP growth, low inflation and earnings growth are all positive factors for the stock market." North American Trust Asset Management said.
The survey shows that 60% of respondents expect the US economy to continue to grow steadily in the near future, but only 29% believe that the US economy will accelerate, compared with 44% in the last survey. Judging from the positions so far, 33% of the managers surveyed became more risk-averse in the last quarter, above average. Only 4% of people are less risk-averse, compared with 14% in the last survey. More than 60 per cent of managers surveyed had not changed their portfolio risk forecasts in the past quarter, and 82 per cent said their cash levels had not changed in the last quarter.
Recently, many experts have encouraged investors to turn their attention to overseas markets in order to seek the next upward opportunity. This view is consistent with a survey by North American Trust Asset Management. Only 36% of managers think American stocks are undervalued, but 86% think European stocks are undervalued, and 88% think emerging market stocks are undervalued or at reasonable valuations.
Since the beginning of 2017, the s & p 500 has set a series of records, up more than 10%. Much of these gains came from the rise in so-called "FANNG" stocks, which is an important reason for widespread concern about the valuation performance of US stocks. The "FANNG" stock includes technology stocks including Facebook, Apple Inc and Alphabet Inc-CL C's parent company Alphabet, while the rest are discretionary consumer goods stocks: Amazon.Com Inc and Netflix Inc.
The names of these stocks also appeared in the survey, with only 6% of respondents saying consumer necessities stocks were undervalued, while 15% thought technology stocks were undervalued. More people believe that financial stocks, energy stocks and health care stocks have room for further rise. 39% thought financial stocks were undervalued, while 32% thought energy and health care stocks were cheap or reasonably valued.
At present, the market is divided over the most expensive and cheapest stocks at unusually high levels, which may raise questions about the outlook for the broader market. In terms of price-to-book ratios, a measure of stock market valuations, investors are divided about 10% of the most expensive and cheapest stocks in the market, an unusually high level, according to Boston Company, an asset manager.
This divergence suggests that in addition to the most popular stocks whose share prices have risen rapidly recently, there are some stocks whose value needs to be discovered.
There are great investment opportunities in companies with deeper value tendencies. Many stocks are expensive for us, even those of companies whose profits have increased significantly, because the market does not think we will have a cyclical upward trend (in economic activity). Said John Bailer, senior portfolio manager at Boston Company. We don't think there will be any big problem with the stock market in the next five years. (Lin Xue)