Recommended logic: the collection disturbance is basically cleared. In the first year of collection, the sales of the company's full range of insulin products increased by 14.9% compared with the same period last year, of which insulin analogues increased by more than 100% over the same period last year, and a stable volume is expected to be maintained in the future.
2) the new products are expected to bring new growth points for the company. The company has been approved a number of third-generation insulin, Lilarutide is under market review, and three innovative drugs for diabetes and two innovative drugs for gout are being developed, which are expected to inject strong impetus into performance growth in the future. 3) the internationalization strategy is advancing steadily. The company's application for insulin listing license has been accepted by the European Drug Administration, and the overseas registration of insulin analogues has progressed steadily.
Collection and acquisition has brought about changes in the competitive pattern, and domestic leaders have ushered in development opportunities. Since May 2022, the sixth batch of national insulin collection projects have been implemented throughout the country, bringing new development opportunities for domestic leaders. In 2022, the sales of the company's full range of insulin products increased by 14.9% compared with the same period last year, of which human insulin sales grew by nearly double digits, and insulin analogues increased by more than 100% year-on-year. The year-on-year decline in sales revenue of the company's insulin products is much smaller than that of the unit price of insulin collection products, showing strong growth resilience and is expected to maintain a stable volume in the future.
The innovative pipeline is about to be realized, bringing new growth points for the company. The company started insulin analogue research in 2011, and now glargine insulin injection, asparagus insulin and premixed preparations have been approved on the market; GLP-1RA Lilaluptide injection applied for market in June 2022 and is expected to be approved within this year; URAT1 inhibitors are in phase II clinical phase. The company is rich in innovative pipeline reserves, which will inject a strong driving force for the company's continued growth in the future.
The internationalization strategy is advancing steadily to create the second growth curve of the company. In 2022, the company's insulin EU registered III clinical trial has been completed, and the listing application has been formally accepted; insulin analogues have been steadily registered and applied in many developing countries. In December 2022, the company signed an agreement with Sinochem Pharmaceuticals to jointly promote the internationalization of GLP-1RA Lilarutide in 17 countries in overseas emerging markets, which will accelerate the process of going out to sea and further open up potential market space.
Profit forecast and investment advice: the company is a domestic insulin leading enterprise, collecting disturbance is basically cleared, and new products are listed one after another. We expect the company's revenue to grow at a compound rate of 14.3% over the next three years, giving the company a "buy" rating of 21 times PE in 2024, corresponding to the target price of 12.39 yuan, covering for the first time.
Risk hints: industry policy risk, R & D less than expected risk, product commercialization less than expected risk and so on.