国盛证券:下半年预计生猪供应仍然过剩 后续猪价或继续承压

Guosheng Securities: It is expected that pig supply will still be excessive in the second half of the year, and subsequent pig prices may continue to be under pressure

Zhitong Finance ·  09/15 14:11

Zhitong Financial APP learned that Guosheng Securities released a research report saying that judging from the changing trend of breeding sows last year, the supply is expected to remain excess in the second half of this year, and capacity removal is expected to continue. This year's seasonal price increase is limited, sufficient pig supply and stocks have always suppressed prices to rise, and pig prices are expected to continue to be under pressure in the future. At the same time, the cost differentiation of the current industry participants is obvious, and the accumulated losses may lead to the subsequent step-by-step removal of production capacity. The recent plate valuation is at the bottom, so it is recommended to pay attention to the allocation opportunities of the pig breeding plate.

Recommended concerns are as follows:Muyuan shares (002714.SZ), Wen shares (300498.SZ), New Hope (000876.SZ), superstar Agriculture and Animal Husbandry (603477.SH), New Wufeng (600975.SH), Huatong shares (002840.SZ), Tang Renshen (002567.SZ), Aonong Biology (603363.SH) and so on.

The main points of Guosheng Securities are as follows:

In August, the year-on-year growth rate narrowed, with a slight increase from the previous month.

As of September 13, 18 listed pig farming enterprises have disclosed their August sales reports, with a total of 12.741 million columns in August, an increase of 23.9% over the same period last year, with a year-on-year increase of 0.3%. The total sales volume from January to August reached 98.102 million, an increase of 16.2% over the same period last year. Zhenghong Technology and Shennong Group had higher year-on-year growth rates in August, reaching 98.8% and 77.1%, respectively.

The weight of commercial pigs in listed companies decreased, and the average weight of white pork increased slightly after slaughter.

In August, the weight of commercial pigs in most listed companies dropped. The bank estimated that the weights of commercial pigs in Muyuan shares and Wen's shares were 118 kg and 114 kg respectively, with a month-on-month ratio of-2.1% and-2.2%, respectively. In August, the average post-slaughter weight of white pork in the industry was 91.19 kg, up 0.05% from the previous month. In terms of price, the price of most of the company's commercial pigs is in the range of 16017 yuan / kg, the highest price is 19.71yuan / kg of Dongrui shares, and the lowest price is * ST Zhengbang 15.99yuan / kg. The price situation of the industry is basically consistent with the performance of listed companies. In August, the national average price of live pigs was 17.17 yuan / kg, up 19.5% from the previous month.

The rebound in pig prices is limited, and self-supporting profits have narrowed.

According to Boya and News, the average price of live pigs nationwide on September 13 was 16.56 yuan / kg, down 1.3% from last week. Since the start of the school year in September, the situation of strong supply and weak demand has not changed, and the bargain sentiment at the breeding end has been resisted by losses at the slaughtering end; at the same time, the entry of Eryu this year is less than that of last year, so the pulling effect of speculative demand on pig prices is limited. With the arrival of the Mid-Autumn Festival, the demand side will still play a certain role in supporting the operation of pig prices, but due to the strength of pig prices in August, there is a certain sentiment of cherishing sales at the breeding end, so that there may be more pigs in September, and after passing the seasonal peak season of consumption, supply will still dominate the trend of pig prices, thus forming a new round of suppression of pig prices. In terms of profit, according to Boya and Hexun, the average profit of self-breeding and raising head reached 2.55 yuan per head in the first week of September, which was significantly narrower than that of last week, with a weekly profit drop of 33.25 yuan per head; the loss of purchased piglets was enlarged, with an average loss of 48.47 yuan per head, an increase of 33.26 yuan per head compared with last week's loss. On Sept. 13, the national average price of 15-kilogram piglets was 426.5 yuan per head, down 6.6% from last week. The rise in pig prices did not lead to a pick-up of enthusiasm for mending, and piglet prices continued to weaken.

In August, each sample could further differentiate the stock performance of sows.

The data of fertile sows differentiated obviously in August, among which the samples of production capacity growth were Yongyi and Steel Union, which were + 0.04% and + 0.3% respectively, while the Association and Zhuochuang showed a decline in production capacity, with a month-on-month ratio of-1% and-0.2%. After the rise in pig prices, the loss of the industry has been alleviated, but on the one hand, the profit cycle in August is relatively short, which has not yet made up for the previous sustained losses; at the same time, the cost differentiation of industry participants is obvious, and some farmers are still in the process of losing money; on the other hand, piglet prices remain low, and the market lacks consistent expectations for future pig prices, so there is no consistency in production decisions.

Risk Tips:Pig price fluctuation risk, epidemic disease risk, consumer demand risk and so on.

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