Qudian's last-mile delivery service is an answer to a question that has haunted investors' minds since the beginning of this year, namely what are the next steps for Qudian, a former participant in China's consumer loans sector? Since deciding to abandon its original fintech business a few years ago, Qudian has experimented in many new fields, but each time has ended in disappointment.
According to the company's latest quarterly report released recently, Qudian has enough cash to use for its latest last-mile delivery, as of6At the end of the month, Qudian has50100 million yuan (6.83billion dollars). Much of this funding came from the downsizing of its initial consumer loan business. The company's business was hugely successful when it first entered the financial services sector.
Since the subsequent strengthening of regulations, most companies have gone out of business, although a few companies such as Qifu Technology and Shinya Technology still exist, mainly to facilitate loans between consumers and small businesses.
To be honest, Qudian's latest plan seems far more interesting than previous diversification efforts. Previously, the company entered the education sector, and most recently into the field of prepared food. Compared to the other two fields,“Last mile” delivery is a relatively new field, and with the advent of new technologies such as drones and autonomous vehicles, the business could have huge potential. According toGrand View ResearchThe estimated value of the global last-mile delivery market last year1320Billions of dollars, expected in2023New year solstice2030The period of the year will be every year8.8%The speed is growing.
That being said, the field has become increasingly crowded, other startups are seeing huge potential in the field, and e-commerce giants such as Amazon and mainland China's JD are also making efforts in drone technology. In this regard, Qudian's decision to initially focus on the smaller Australian and New Zealand markets seemed like a relatively wise decision, at least at the initial stage.
Qudian's announcement did not get any attention from investors, at least not at first. The stock recently plummeted17%. Since5Since the middle of the month, its stock price has actually more than doubled due to investors' expectations for the next phase of the company's business model. Even after the recent sell-off, the stock is still worth5The level was higher in the middle of the month60%This is about double the level at the beginning of the year.
Even after the most recent sell-off, the company's market capitalization is still4.4A billion dollars. Of course, this is just a fun store2017yearIPOsShortly thereafter, the market value was about35A fraction of a billion dollars. But that's still not a small amount, and may reflect the company's large amount of cash and some cautious expectations for new business.
Great potential
Here's a brief look at Qudian's latest quarterly financial results, then take a look at information about the company's new last-mile delivery strategy.
The company's latest financial data is actually not that important, as these figures mainly reflect businesses that are being discontinued. Qudian's revenue for the second quarter was only1110Ten thousand yuan, lower than the same period last year1.054100 million yuan. The company said revenue from the business fell to zero due to the formal end of its previous major loan business.
Instead, the company's revenue comes from itsQD FoodSome unfulfilled orders from the prepared food business, which is currently shrinking, will soon drop to zero. Qudian said that last year12The “last mile” express delivery business, which began to be piloted in January, has also brought in some revenue. With the launch of the business, the company's general and administrative costs increased year-over-year in the second quarter88%, but it's still there6540Within the manageable range of ten thousand yuan.
The company's reported net loss for the last three months769010,000 yuan, loss compared to the same period last year6130There has been an increase of 10,000 yuan. Also, since the company has huge cash reserves, these losses seem relatively insignificant. As stated above,6At the end of the month, the company's cash holdings were about50100 million yuan, the same as three months ago, but compared to the yuan at the end of last year35There was a sharp rise of 100 million yuan.
The company hasn't held an analyst call, probably because no analysts are paying attention to it anymore. As a result, my only information about the new plan comes from a few brief comments in its earnings announcement.
The company's chairman said,“Since2022year12Since the pilot began in January, our new last-mile delivery business has made steady progress, and2023The second quarter of the year was a 'fast horse in Australia (Fast horse)'The brand is beginning to achieve its initial shape and scale.” “We believe such a new strategic business plan will bring value to our shareholders, and we hope to expand our footprint in Australia, North America and New Zealand, and provide more details on the development of this business as we continue to build this business.”
China's leading last-mile delivery service company Dada currently has a market sales rate of1, and the American express delivery giantUPSThe market sales rate of1.5. This means that Qudian needs to rapidly increase annual sales to a new “last mile” express delivery business5Only about 100 million dollars can prove that its current stock price is reasonable.
All in all, Qudian's recent change of direction poses considerable risk, as the company has little experience in the express delivery business or operations outside of China. But the founder also proved himself to be an excellent entrepreneur, including the decision to quickly close the relevant business after realizing that he would not be successful. So I'll be careful about Qudian's latest move, and I'll be watching closely to see if the company's new business will eventually succeed or end in yet another failure.