业绩符合预期，下游开启复苏通道。2023H1，公司营收同比小幅下滑，主因第三方硬件配套业务中合作品牌调整致中电器件营业收入下降约 31%，影响整体营收表现，酒店/零售信息系统业务营收4.98/2.41 亿元，同比增长8.46%/4.75%，下游已逐步回暖；利润端，得益于酒店及餐饮行业消费转暖，带动公司产品收入同比增长，扣非净利润实现快速增长，归母净利润同比下滑35.55%，主因上年同期下属子公司石基美国将持有的 Kalibri 股权全部出售获得投资收益，本期无相关事项所致。Items:
According to the company's semi-annual report of 2023, the operating income in the first half of 2023 was 1.201 billion yuan, down 5.93% from the same period last year; the net profit was 22.308 million yuan, down 35.55% from the same period last year; and the non-net profit was 10.7583 million yuan, an increase of 372.91% over the same period last year. In the single quarter of 2023Q2, the company achieved operating income of 640 million yuan, down 8.99% from the same period last year; net profit from home was 12.0431 million yuan, up 208.10% from the same period last year; and 8.5295 million yuan was deducted from non-net profit, an increase of 1591.25% over the same period last year.
Comments:
The performance was in line with expectations, and the downstream opened the path of recovery. 2023H1, the company's revenue declined slightly compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the adjustment of cooperative brands in the third-party hardware supporting business, which led to a decline of about 31% in operating income of CLP devices, which affected the overall revenue performance. The revenue of hotel / retail information system business was 4.98 billion yuan, an increase of 8.46% and 4.75% over the same period last year, and the downstream has gradually recovered. On the profit side, due to the warming consumption in the hotel and catering industry, the company's product income grew year-on-year, deducting non-net profit to achieve rapid growth, and home net profit decreased by 35.55% compared with the same period last year. This is mainly due to the investment income gained from the sale of all shares held by Shiji USA, a subsidiary of Shiji USA, in the same period last year.
With the acceleration of Shangyun, overseas business is advancing steadily. In terms of overseas expansion, the proportion of the company's international business income in operating income has increased to 17.72% in the first half of the year, and there are about 80,000 overseas hotel stores using the company's products by the end of the reporting period. International business is expected to accelerate the growth of the company's operating revenue. In terms of SaaS business, the ARR of the company's SaaS business reached 342 million yuan at the end of June 2023, an increase of about 45% over the same period last year. The total number of corporate customer (end-user) stores is about 80,000 hotels, with an average renewal rate of more than 90%. With the expansion of overseas business, it is expected to further accelerate the company's cloud process.
SEP is launched in batches, and the demonstration effect of Infrasys Cloud is significant. In the first half of the year, the company's SEP continued to expand its presence in signed benchmark customers Peninsula, Intercontinental and Langham Hotels Group. among them, Continental Hotel Group's hotels in China were launched in large quantities in the first half of the year and are approaching the goal of deploying 30 hotels per month. Cloud POS, in May, Shiji Germany, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, and Hilton Hotel Group newly signed MSA,Infrasys Cloud to become the only cloud POS product of TOP5 International Hotel Group, which has all the global influence. By the end of the reporting period, the total number of customers of the company's Infrasys Cloud cloud POS products has reached 3502, up from 3087 at the beginning of the year.
Investment suggestion: considering the upstream recovery pace, we estimate that the operating income from 2023 to 2025 will be 2.905 billion yuan, 3.267 billion yuan and 3.667 billion yuan respectively (the original forecast for 2023-2025 is 3.114 billion yuan, 3.592 billion yuan and 4.131 billion yuan), with corresponding growth rates of 11.9%, 12.5% and 12.2%, respectively. In terms of valuation, with reference to the valuation level of comparable companies, we give 2023 15xPS with a target price of about $16, maintaining a "recommended" rating.
Risk hints: there is uncertainty in the recovery of downstream customer demand, uncertainty in the process of overseas expansion, and uncertainty in the promotion of new products.
