Zhitong Financial APP learned that Cinda Securities released a research report saying that the rapid development of new energy under the dual-carbon goal has given rise to flexible resource demand, and thermal power flexibility has been transformed into a more economical and feasible flexible regulation mode at present. Our country is congenitally deficient in flexible regulation capacity, and the effect of gas-electric peak regulation is good, but 1) the gas source is limited and the fuel cost is high; 2) the pumping construction period is long and limited by geographical conditions; 3) the new type of energy storage cost is high and the regulation time is short. Coal power is expected to give full play to the advantages of stock installation, through flexible transformation to continue to tap the potential of the unit peak regulation capacity. Pay attention to the targets to benefit from the flexibility transformation of thermal power, Huaguang Ring Energy (600475.SH), Xizi Jianneng (002534.SZ), Qingda Environmental Protection (688501.SH), Longyuan Technology (300105.SZ).
The main points of Cinda Securities are as follows:
Under the goal of "double carbon", the rapid development of new energy gives rise to the demand for flexible resources, and the flexibility of thermal power is transformed into a more economical and feasible flexible regulation mode at present.
From 2010 to 2022, the annual compound growth rate of landscape installed capacity is 30.94%, and the annual compound growth rate of wind power generation is 30.2%. In the future, landscape installed capacity and power generation are expected to maintain growth. However, as the new energy generation has the characteristics of volatility, homogeneity and anti-peak regulation, with the increase of the proportion of new energy connected to the power grid, the lack of flexibility of the power system, the problem of absorption gradually appears. China's flexibility regulation capacity is congenitally insufficient, and the effect of gas and electric peak regulation is good, but the gas source is limited and the fuel cost is high; the pumping construction period is long and limited by geographical conditions; the new type of energy storage cost is high and the regulation time is short; coal power is expected to give full play to the advantage of stock installation, and continue to tap the potential unit peak regulation capacity through flexible transformation.
The key point of flexible transformation is to improve the ability of deep peak regulation of thermal power plant, and the realization of "thermal electrolysis coupling" is the key to the transformation.
For pure condensing units, the focus is to achieve stable combustion and wide load denitrification under low load; for cogeneration units, the key is to realize "thermoelectrolytic coupling". On the one hand, the unit body is reformed to reduce power generation by reducing the output level of steam turbines; on the other hand, by increasing thermal energy storage equipment, such as hot water tank energy storage, electric boiler solid energy storage and so on. The selection of different peak regulation methods should be adapted to local conditions according to different power plant conditions. According to the 22 pilot projects of the National Energy Administration, 90% of them are flexible transformation of cogeneration units, 35% of all the pilot projects adopt hot water energy storage transformation, and 30% adopt the way of electrothermal solid energy storage + electrode boiler. The installation of energy storage devices may become the main direction of transformation.
The development of auxiliary service market is one of the core driving forces of flexible transformation.
From the experience of transformation, the implementation of the auxiliary service market in Northeast China is early, the compensation standard is high, and the flexibility transformation is the fastest. The power of transformation mainly examines the economy of flexible transformation, that is, whether the increase of compensation income for peak regulation can make up for the cost of flexible transformation and the rising cost of power supply coal consumption. The bank calculates the economy of the retrofit of 600000 kilowatt units, assuming that the minimum output after the transformation is reduced to 40%, with three hours of deep peak regulation in a day, and the compensation price is 0.2yuan / kWh. After flexible transformation, the profit of kilowatt-hour power can be increased by 0.006 yuan to 0.026 yuan / kwh. The annual excess profit before tax reaches 10.1367 million yuan; when the lowest load is 40%, the compensation for peak regulation is 0.11 yuan / kWh, the minimum load is 30%, and the compensation for peak regulation is ≥ 0.21 yuan / kWh, the flexibility transformation of thermal power plant is economical. At present, according to the current peak regulation compensation standards of various provinces and regions, when the output of most areas is less than 40%, the compensation standard is more than 0.20 yuan / kWh, that is, it has the economy of flexible transformation and promotion.
There is a broad market space for flexible transformation of thermal power plants.
According to the National implementation Plan for the Transformation and upgrading of Coal-fired Power Units, a flexible retrofit of 200 million kilowatts will be completed during the 14th five-year Plan period, so it is assumed that the capacity of the retrofit units during the 14th five-year Plan period will be 200 million kilowatts; in the long term, units of 600000 kilowatts and below (760 million kilowatts) need to be renovated, 90% of which are cogeneration units, and the peak regulation capacity will be increased by 20%. According to the calculation of the bank, during the 14th five-year Plan period, the renovation cost of the unit to be modified in the market is about 44.4-8.88 billion yuan, and the cost of thermoelectric decoupling transformation is 316.44-49.788 billion yuan; looking at the long-term market space, the cost of unit body transformation is about 135.1-27.022 billion yuan, and the cost of thermoelectric decoupling transformation is 961.98-151.356 billion yuan.
Risk Tips:The process of flexibility transformation of thermal power plant is slow, the policy landing is not as expected, the development of auxiliary service market lags behind, and the poor profitability of power plant leads to the lack of funds to implement the transformation.