Purchase analysis:
1. The issuance size of the convertible bonds is 1.492068 billion yuan, and the debt and main body rating is AA/AA; the conversion share price is 34.67 yuan, and the conversion value is 91.15 yuan as of September 8, 2023; the arithmetic average of each year's coupon is 1.18 yuan, and the maturity compensation interest rate is 11%, which belongs to the lower level of newly issued convertible bonds.
According to the discount rate of 3.90% maturity yield of 6-year AA bond enterprises on September 7, 2023, the bottom of the debt is 94.25 yuan, and the value of pure debt is higher. Other game provisions are market-oriented terms, if all the conversion of the dilution pressure on the total equity is 9.32%, the dilution pressure on the circulating equity is 10.74%, the dilution pressure on the existing equity is general.
two。 As of September 8, 2023, the top three shareholders of the company, Xiamen Kehua Weiye Co., Ltd., Chen Chenghui, and Hong Kong Securities Clearing Co., Ltd. (Luke Tong), respectively, accounted for 19.73%, 17.06% and 3.68% of the total share capital, respectively. The controlling shareholder promised to give priority to the placement. According to the forecast of the new market income and environment at this stage, the first day priority placement is expected to be about 77%, without offline placement.
The remaining amount of new debt applied for online is 343 million yuan, because the upper limit for individual households is 1 million yuan. Assuming that the number of online purchase accounts is between 95 and 10.5 million, the success rate is expected to be around 0.0033% MUE 0.0036%.
3. The company is in the industry of other power equipment Ⅲ (Shenwan III). From the point of view of valuation, as of September 8, 2023, the company's PE (TTM) is 36.10 times, which is in the middle level among 10 enterprises with similar income, with a market capitalization of 14.586 billion yuan, which is in the middle level of the industry. As of September 8, 2023, the company's shares have fallen 36.58% so far this year, while the industry index has fallen 15.82%, Wandequan A has dropped 0.68%, and the annualized volatility in the past 100 weeks is 56.10%. The stock is more flexible. At present, the proportion of equity pledge is 0.005%, and there is no risk of equity pledge. Other risk points: 1. The risk of real estate lease; 2. Risk of collection of accounts receivable; 3. Inventory management risk; 4. The risk of talent introduction and loss; 5. Raw material supply and price risk.
4. The scale of the convertible bonds is small, the protection of the debt bottom is high, the parity is lower than the face value, the market may give a 38% premium, and the listing price is expected to be about 126 yuan. It is suggested to actively participate in the purchase of new bonds.
Risk hints: the risk of default, the risk that the price of convertible bonds fluctuates or even falls below par value, the risk that convertible bonds cannot be converted into shares at maturity, the risk of diluting earnings per share and return on net assets, the related risks of this convertible bond into equity, the risk of credit rating change, the risk of fluctuation of positive shares, and the premium of listed earnings is lower than expected.