Silicon carbide long crystal furnace faucet, downstream 3 years 10-fold expansion brings high β. The company mainly sells silicon carbide crystal furnace and semiconductor crystal furnace equipment, and enters the downstream leading customers such as San'an Optoelectronics, BYD Semiconductor, Tony Electronics, Tianyue Advanced, Shanghai Silicon Industry, Lion Micro, Shengong shares and so on. With the advantages of high performance and low loss, silicon carbide has a rapid increase in permeability in new energy vehicles, optical storage and other fields.
At present, the production capacity of silicon carbide substrate is less than 400000 pieces. We estimate that in the next 3 years, the capacity increment space of silicon carbide substrate is 4.65 million pieces, and the incremental market space of silicon carbide crystal furnace is 5.6 billion yuan.
The customization advantage expands the share, and the scale effect helps to improve the profit margin. At present, the yield of substrate manufacturers varies, ranging from 20-75%. In order to improve yield and reduce cost, substrate manufacturers have a prominent demand for temperature, heat field and other DIY. Different from the bidding strategy adopted by competitive products, the company actively responds to the customized needs of downstream customers, making rapid breakthroughs in customer orders and helping to increase their share. The company's revenue in 2022 is 220 million yuan. according to the equity incentive plan announced by the company on August 18, the agreed performance evaluation target is 2023 and 2024. The revenue in 2025 will increase by no less than 80%, 170%, 270% over 2022. On the one hand, the high performance goal shows the confidence of the company, on the other hand, with the rapid growth of income, the scale effect is released, which will effectively dilute fixed costs such as R & D expenditure and investment in fixed assets. Help improve profit margins.
The technology of semiconductor crystal furnace equipment is leading, and there is a broad space for domestic substitution. At present, 70% of domestic 12-inch crystal growth equipment depends on imports, and the localization rate urgently needs to be improved. The company's semiconductor-grade single crystal silicon furnace completely covers the mainstream 12-inch, 8-inch light-doped and heavily doped silicon wafer preparation, and the above 28nm process has achieved batch production, which can meet the growth and manufacturing requirements of semiconductor-grade silicon wafers with different technical specifications. With the development of silicon wafer market, the domestic production rate will continue to improve.
Longitudinal layout of epitaxial furnace and cutting equipment to further open the growth space. In order to further improve the layout of silicon carbide production equipment, the company vertically extends silicon carbide epitaxial growth and crystal processing equipment, and vigorously develops multi-wire cutting machine equipment and multi-chip CVD equipment, which is progressing smoothly, and after successful research and development, it is expected to be quickly introduced by virtue of existing customer advantages to enhance the value share in a single customer. We estimate that the domestic market space for silicon carbide epitaxial equipment is 6.4 billion yuan from 2022 to 2025, which is expected to further open up the growth space of the company.
Profit forecast and valuation: we expect the company to enter a period of rapid expansion in the next 3 years. The net profit of 2023 Universe 2024 will be RMB 0.71 million in 2025, an increase of 104.25%, 82.76% and 57.08% over the same period last year, corresponding to 80% of CAGR in 2022-2025 and 0.41% of PEG in 2025. Take the average number of comparable companies to give the average valuation of PEG 0.48, corresponding to the target market value of 7.8 billion, corresponding to the stock price of 56.2yuan, the first coverage, given a "buy" rating.
Risk hints: lower-than-expected demand, intensified competition in the industry, and changes in technology paths.