Nuoli Co., Ltd.: China's leading intelligent internal logistics system solution provider Nuoli Co., Ltd. specializes in intelligent warehousing logistics equipment design and development, manufacturing, installation and commissioning and technical services, after more than 20 years of development. The company has become one of the few companies in the world that can provide integrated solutions such as intelligent logistics equipment, intelligent three-dimensional warehouse, intelligent transportation and sorting system, high-altitude working platform, intelligent mobile robot (AGV) and its group control system and intelligent logistics software. The company's main business is composed of intelligent logistics system business and intelligent equipment business, both of which account for about 50% of the revenue. In recent years, the company's revenue and profits have increased rapidly, with operating income CAGR of 31.3% and net profit CAGR of 18.6% in 2016-2022. The company's profitability showed a positive trend, with 2023H1 gross profit margin of 22.34%, up 3.76pct year-on-year, and net profit margin of 6.62%, up 0.48pct over the same period last year.
The manufacturing boom is expected to be repaired, lithium electrification + internationalization to create a new growth momentum forklift industry diversified products to meet the needs of multiple scenarios, global space of more than 100 billion. The downstream applications of forklifts include machinery manufacturing, food and beverage, petrochemical and other manufacturing sectors (60%, 70%) and transportation & warehousing (20%, 30%) and other industries, so demand is less affected by a single industry and is related to the macroeconomic operation cycle. The current domestic manufacturing boom repair is expected to lead to the recovery of the forklift industry. With the advantages of manufacturing supply chain, performance-to-price ratio and domestic leading enterprises actively going to sea, domestic forklift exports have continued to grow rapidly in recent years, and the proportion of forklift exports has increased to 34.5% in 2022. Among them, lithium electric forklift has gradually replaced lead-acid battery forklift as an important contribution to export, and the resonance with export further enhances the global status of domestic forklift leading enterprises. In the context of the return of manufacturing in North America, the overall demand in North America is strong, which is expected to further drive the growth of forklift exports.
Lithium forklift advantage + overseas active layout for the company to open the growth space for the company for the domestic established forklift manufacturing enterprises, the company's electric forklift ranked first in the country with a market share of 18.3% in 2020, and is expected to benefit more from the lithium electrification trend. In addition, the company actively arranges overseas production bases and sales network to help open up the growth space.
The company's intelligent manufacturing equipment business mainly has three production bases: Changxing production base, Malaysia production base and Vietnam production base, which are mainly based on Nuoli and Yongli Machinery; at the same time, the company has set up sales channels and sales networks in China, the United States, Europe, Russia, Southeast Asia and so on. The company's global production and sales networks are linked and supported each other, opening up a broad space for the company's future growth.
Intelligent logistics: extension M & An accelerates integration, turning to integrated solution providers and service providers. China's automated logistics storage system market maintains rapid growth, and the market capacity is large. According to the forecast of GGII, the scale of China's intelligent warehousing market is expected to reach 165 billion yuan in 2023. The company has achieved epitaxial development by investing in the internal logistics industry chain, and has acquired Zhongding Integration and French SAVOYE to achieve business upgrading and transformation. Through incentive policy, team optimization, talent introduction, capacity expansion optimization and coordination, we have achieved effective control and improvement of subsidiaries at home and abroad, the income scale continues to grow, and the newly signed orders remain high. In 2020, the company ranks first in the competitiveness of logistics warehousing automation equipment manufacturers in China, and the business income scale of intelligent logistics system far exceeds that of other enterprises in the industry.
From 2023 to 2025, the company is expected to achieve a net profit of 5.14,6.65 and 861 million yuan respectively, corresponding to 11 times, 8 times and 6 times of PE, respectively.
Risk hint
1. The risk of overseas demand falling short of expectations
2. The risk of rising costs caused by the fluctuation of raw material prices.
3. The risk that the assumption of profit forecast is not valid or less than expected.