Main points of investment
Event: recently, the company announced that the company reported results in mid-2023, with 23H1 income of 260 million yuan (+ 21.70), domestic planting volume of + 28% to 2300 units compared with the same period last year, and a net loss of 350 million yuan (22H1 loss of 200 million yuan).
The recovery of TAVR implantation is obvious, and the new generation product Venus-PowerX can be expected in the future. According to the forecast of Frost&Su llivan, the number of TAVR operations in China is expected to reach 42000 in 2025, the ex-factory scale of the industry is expected to reach 5 billion yuan, and the industry is rapidly expanding. Qiming currently sells three TAVR products (VenusA-Valve,VenusA-Plus and VenusA-Pro) in the market. VenusA-Pro is an upgrade of VenusA-Plus. The sales revenue of 23H1VenusA series products is 230 million yuan (+ 16.9%). It is estimated that the number of operations in the industry will be 11000 in 2023, and the total number of TAVR operations implanted in Qiming Medical from January to June 23 is about 2300 (+ 28%), which is in line with the company's expectations. In addition, the company's new generation of TAVR product Venus-PowerX is currently in the early feasibility study stage and will conduct international multicenter clinical trials in Europe and other countries and regions to promote Venus-PowerX to be approved for listing in the global market.
The domestic market will implement the local profit strategy and gradually reduce the rate of sales expenses and the amount of subsidies. The company achieves positive benefits from commercialization by increasing per capita sales output and optimizing costs. In the second half of 23 years, with the arrival of the peak season of the industry, it is expected that the number of operations will continue to increase compared with the previous year, and it is estimated that the number of TAVR operations implanted in Qiming Medical Service in 23 years will reach 5000. While 23H1 is gradually reducing the rate of sales expenses, the company has also reduced the per capita patient allowance from 2W in 22 years to 1.1W in the direction of profit-making, achieving a commercial profit margin of nearly 10% for 23H1.
Overseas VenusP-Valve sales growth in Europe is strong, while clinical research is being carried out simultaneously in North America. 23H1 VenusP-Valve sales revenue is 25.19 million yuan (+ 177%), 23H1 VenusP-Valve has been listed in more than 1x5 "Belt and Road Initiative" countries, has entered the United Kingdom, Italy, Spain and other 30 countries and regions. With the help of local sales team, sales growth is strong. In July 23, clinical studies were carried out simultaneously in North America. VenusP-Valve has been approved by FDA in the United States to apply for IDE, and clinical studies have been conducted simultaneously in more than a dozen medical centers in the United States and Japan. A total of 60 patients are expected to be enrolled in the group.
Profit forecast: it is estimated that the income from 2023 to 2025 will be 6.4,10.1 and 1.55 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit will be-7.7,4 and 10 million yuan respectively.
Risk hint: product volume is less than expected risk, R & D failure risk, policy cost control risk, competition aggravating risk.