The company issues its 2023 half-yearly report. In the first half of the year, the company realized operating income of 1.723 billion yuan, down 7.49% from the same period last year; realized net profit of 48.6893 million yuan, up 151.41% from the same period last year; realized net profit of 31.7518 million yuan, up 177.27% from the same period last year; and net cash flow from operating activities was 42.7781 million yuan, an increase of 347.31% over the same period last year.
The performance of carbon fiber products continues to improve, the market price is under short-term pressure, and the profit of viscose filament is improving. In terms of products, the contribution income of viscose filament in the first half of the year was 1.22 billion yuan,-1.31% compared with the same period last year, accounting for 70.79% of operating income, and the gross profit margin was 17.01%, compared with the same period last year. + 7.0pct. The contribution income of viscose staple fiber in the first half of the year was 1.5207 million yuan,-99.72% compared with the same period last year. The contribution income of carbon fiber products is 175 million yuan, + 346.30% compared with the same period last year, accounting for 10.17% of operating income, 2.11% in the same period last year, and 3.31% gross profit margin, year-on-year-15.96pct. The main reason is that carbon fiber products are currently affected by the pattern of supply and demand, market prices decline, and phased pressure appears in the development of the industry, but in the long run, it has a good momentum of development and broad prospects.
Carbon fiber large tow bibcock, obvious advantages of the industrial chain, optimistic about the future continuous volume. In the first half of the year, the company's carbon fiber products include small tow carbon fiber produced by the wholly-owned subsidiary Jilin Cameike, and large tow carbon fiber produced by the front end of the 12000 ton carbon fiber composite project. In the short term, under the influence of the supply and demand pattern of the industry, the market price of carbon fiber shows a downward trend, but we believe that the civil large tow carbon fiber racetrack still maintains a high magnificent bearing. The growth of new electric energy based on wind and light has driven the demand for civil large tow carbon fiber, and the market scale is huge. In the future, with the gradual maturity of the carbon fiber industry and the smooth progress of terminal application technology, production costs have also been reduced. Large tow carbon fiber will still be able to open more industrial use scenes in the future, thus driving the overall price stability. At the same time, the Jilin region where the company is located, whose carbon fiber R & D and production started early, is the only carbon fiber industrialization base recognized by the Ministry of Science and Technology, and has formed industrial agglomeration and matching in the upstream and downstream areas of the carbon fiber industry. therefore, it also has a strong industrial chain advantage, helping the company to create the second growth curve.
The profitability of viscose filament products is improved. At present, the total domestic production capacity of viscose filament is about 210,000 tons / year, accounting for the vast majority of global production capacity. At present, with technical advantages and quality advantages, the company has grown into the world's largest viscose filament manufacturer, with obvious competitive advantages in the industry. At present, the production capacity of viscose filament is about 80,000 tons / year. The company's viscose filament is mainly for export, the production capacity and demand are relatively stable, the price rebounds + the cost decreases, the profit situation is enhanced, and is optimistic about the future market prospect.
Investment suggestion: in view of the fact that the downstream carbon fiber maintains a high scene demeanor, and the application scene is expanded, at the same time, wind power needs to increase the installed capacity + permeability continues to improve, and the company's carbon fiber integrated layout, future space is expected, we estimate that the company's EPS in 2023-2025 is 0.05,0.08,0.12 yuan respectively; corresponding to 2023-2025 PE is 74 times, 52 times, 33 times respectively. Maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk hints: macroeconomic growth is lower than expected, trade disputes escalate, manufacturing downstream industry demand is lower than expected, carbon fiber demand is lower than expected risk, statistical errors, forecast parameters, assumptions are less than expected risk.