1)私域流量支撑：公司会员福利体系完善、集团下品牌可互相引流、善于利用品牌联动及会员折扣扩大会员覆盖面，可为门店经营持续供能；2)供应链支撑：通过数字化物流体系和上游深耕布局实现高物流运输效率、低食材损耗及稳定的原材料采购价格，成本端优化带动利润增长；3)呷哺呷哺：性价比菜单具备引流效果；品牌于2021年末宣布南下门店扩张战略，南方城市小火锅细分市场尚处蓝海，发展空间充足。4)湊湊：锅底与茶饮持续创新突破保证强品牌势能，下午茶时间段经营契合消费者情感联络需求，一二线城市门店扩张步伐稳健，海外拓展空间充足。5)趁烧：门店模型优异，上海门店反响佳，成长空间广阔，长期有望成为业绩新贡献点。According to the Minsheng Securities Research Report, at 23H1, the company's revenue was 2,846 million yuan/year on year +31.98%, compared to the same period in '19, +4.93%; net profit was 2,406 million yuan, turning a loss into a profit over the same period in '22, and 210 million yuan in the same period in '19. 23H1, gross profit margin 63.68% /year on year +0.57 pcts, compared to the same period in '19, +0.13 pcts; net interest rate 0.08%, year on year +13.05 pcts, compared to the same period in '19, -7.67 pcts.
The bank believes that the company is based on two major support points and three driving points, and still has strong competitiveness in the current hot pot restaurant market.
1) Private traffic support: The company's member welfare system is perfect, brands under the group can flow to each other, and is good at using brand linkage and membership discounts to expand member coverage, which can continuously supply energy for store operations; 2) Supply chain support: High logistics efficiency, low food loss and stable raw material purchase prices are achieved through a digital logistics system and advanced upstream layout, leading to profit growth; 3) Xiabuxiabu: The cost-effective menu has drainage effects; the brand announced a southbound store expansion strategy at the end of 2021, and the Southern City Hot Pot Market is segmented by the Blue Ocean, there is plenty of room for development. 4) Minato Minato: Continuous innovation and breakthroughs in pot bottoms and tea drinks guarantee strong brand potential. Afternoon tea time operations meet consumers' emotional communication needs, the pace of store expansion in Tier 1 and 2 cities is steady, and there is plenty of room for overseas expansion. 5) Take advantage: The store model is excellent, the Shanghai store has a good response, and there is plenty of room for growth. It is expected to become a new contribution point to performance in the long run.
The bank expects the company's net profit of 174/4.02/684 million yuan from 2023-2025. The corresponding PE is 20X/9X/5X, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
