Core ideas:
The company's half-yearly report was slightly worse than expected. In the first half of 23, the company realized revenue of 93 million yuan, year-on-year-37.68%, net profit of 10 million yuan, year-on-year-70.44%, non-return net profit of 1 million yuan, year-on-year-97.23%. Looking at 23Q2 alone, the company realized revenue of 41 million yuan, year-on-year-63.53%, return-mother net profit of 5 million yuan, year-on-year-85.93%, deduction of non-mother net profit-4 million yuan, year-on-year-118.16% Due to the major customer project planning and acceptance nodes resulting in less project delivery acceptance in the first half of the year and other reasons, resulting in greater fluctuations in business performance, while the delivery target for the second half of the year is advancing as planned.
Gross profit margin has risen steadily, while net profit margin has declined. In the first half of 23, the comprehensive gross profit margin was 51.76%, year-on-year + 3.60pct, net interest rate 11.33%, year-on-year-12.55pct, deducting non-net interest rate 0.74%, year-on-year-15.82pct; look at 23Q2 alone, comprehensive gross profit margin 48.54%, year-on-year + 1.45pct, net profit 11.50%, year-on-year-18.32pct.
The long-term development trend of nuclear power remains unchanged. According to the company's semi-annual report, the executive meeting of the State Council in 2022 successively approved the construction of 10 nuclear power units; according to the investor relations record disclosed by the company on August 29, six nuclear power units were approved at the end of July this year, with reference to last year. There is a high probability that new units will be approved in the second half of the year; at present, the new demonstration plant for spent fuel reprocessing has already started bidding, and the follow-up planning will be promoted quickly.
Profit forecast and investment advice. We estimate that the company's revenue for 23-25 years will be 308 million yuan per share, and the net profit will be 1.34 billion yuan, while the EPS will be 3.02 yuan per share. With reference to the valuation level of the comparable company, considering that most of the company's income comes from the nuclear power industry and belongs to the relatively scarce nuclear power target company, with the gradual progress of the spent fuel project. The company will usher in a stage of rapid revenue growth, so we give a 23-year valuation of 55 times PE, corresponding to a reasonable value of 72.18 yuan per share, and maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk hint. The risk of high business concentration and policy change, the risk of high customer concentration, the risk of performance fluctuation caused by discontinuous order acquisition, and the seasonal risk of performance.