Events. Yindu shares disclosed 2023 semi-annual report. In the first half of 2023, the company realized operating income of 1.332 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.95% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 269 million yuan, a decrease of 3.02% over the same period last year. The net profit of deducting non-return was 261 million yuan, an increase of 5.07% over the same period last year. The operating income of 2023Q2 in the single quarter was 734 million yuan, down 4.08% from the same period last year, and the net profit was 172 million yuan, + 11.87% from the same period last year. The net profit after deducting non-return was 167 million yuan, an increase of 29.03% over the same period last year.
The downward trend of sea freight is obvious, and the profitability is gradually restored. (1) in terms of the company's profitability, the annual gross profit margin and net profit margin of the company in the first half of 2023 were 40.72% and 20.2% respectively, with a year-on-year change of + 2.270.82 pct. Among them, Q2 single-quarter gross profit margin / net profit rate was 41.22%, 23.38%, respectively, compared with the same period last year + 5.61pct/+3.33pct. (2) according to Wind data, on September 1, 2023, the CCFI US-West Freight Index was 766.87, year-on-year-65.66%, month-on-week-1.29%,-67.66%, + 1.40% compared with the previous week.
The financial expense rate of 23H1 Company is-4.09%, which is-3.28pct compared with the same period last year, which is mainly due to the exchange gain of 49.76 million yuan. From the cost point of view, the expense rate during the 23H1 period is 17.36%, a year-on-year change + 0.63pct. Among them, the sales / management / finance / R & D expense rates are 13.92%, 5.5%, 4.09%, 2.04%, respectively, with year-on-year changes in 3.77/0.35/-3.28/-0.21pct. Q2 expense rate during the single quarter is 13.56%, year-on-year change-1.38pct. Among them, the sales / management / finance / R & D expense rates are 13.61%, 5.42%, 7.64% and 2.17%, respectively, with a year-on-year change in 4.01/0.42/-5.86/0.05pct. The exchange income of 49.76 million yuan in the first half of 2023 reduced the company's financial expense rate and thickened its performance.
The company's contract liabilities increased year-on-year, and the operating cash flow improved significantly. (1) by 2023 Q2, the company's inventory is 854 million yuan,-20% of the same period last year, and the contract liability is 66 million yuan, + 62% of the same period last year.
(2) in terms of cash flow, the net cash flow generated by the company's business activities in 2023H1 year was 419 million yuan compared with the same period last year + 373.21% + 373.21% of the net cash flow from 2023Q2 business activities, which was + 46% compared with the same period last year.
Profit forecast: we estimate that the company's operating income in 2023, 2024, and 2025 will be 26.69, 30.96 / 3.568 billion yuan, and its net profit will be 5.34, 632, 768 million. With reference to the comparable company valuation, we give the company a valuation of 22-25 times PE in 2023, with a reasonable value range of 27.84-31.64 yuan per share (the company's EPS is expected to be 1.27 yuan in 2023), and the corresponding reasonable market capitalization is 117.13-13.31 billion yuan, which is "better than the market" rating. With reference to PB valuation, the company's PB in 2023 is 3.82-4.34 times (comparable company PB range is 1.57-4.05 times in 2023), which has little difference with comparable company PB valuation, which is reasonable.
Risk hints: investment project production is not as expected; downstream demand returns less than expected; rising shipping prices affect profitability; market competition aggravates risk; exchange rate fluctuation risk