Investment points: Xiamen Bank's 23H1 revenue increased by 3.60% over the same period last year, and its net profit increased by 15.92% over the same period last year, faster than that of 23Q1. The company reduces high-interest deposits, the average interest rate on deposits and liabilities goes down, and we maintain the company's "better than the market" rating.
Profit growth accelerated in the second quarter. The net profit of 23Q2 Xiamen Bank rose 16.9 per cent year-on-year compared with 22Q2, which was higher than the growth rate of 23Q1 (14.98 per cent). The annualized weighted average return on equity of 23H1 is 12.28%, which is 1.12pct higher than that of 22H1.
Cross-strait finance is temporarily affected by the increase in interest rates by the US dollar and has a good customer base. The number of Taiwan enterprise customers of 23H1 increased by 17% compared with that at the beginning of 23 years; the number of credit households granted by Taiwan enterprises increased by 14% compared with that at the beginning of 23; under the influence of the increase in US dollar interest rates, Xiamen Bank took the initiative to reduce the size of US dollar deposits and loans, so the deposit balance of Taiwan enterprises decreased by 11% compared with the beginning of 23 years. On the retail side, the number of 23H1 Taiwan compatriots' customers increased by 8% compared with the beginning of 23; the number of Taiwan compatriots' credit cards issued increased by 9% compared with the beginning of the year; and the balance of Taiwan compatriots' financial assets increased by 6% compared with the beginning of the year.
Pressure down on high-interest deposits, average interest rates on deposits and liabilities fell. The average cost rate of 23H1 deposits is 2.45%, and the average cost rate of interest-bearing liabilities is 2.45%, which is lower than that of 22 years by 5bps and 2bps respectively. The total amount of corporate structured deposits and margin deposits decreased by 34.94% compared with the end of 22. We believe that total deposits may be partly affected by the new regulations on bills in November 22, which led to a 9.67% drop in total deposits compared with the end of 22.
The proportion of defective rate and concerned loans decreased, and the provision coverage increased. Compared with 23Q1, the non-performing rate decreased by 6bps to 0.80%, while the proportion of concern loans decreased by 10bps to 1.17% compared with 23Q1. The defect rate of wholesale, retail and construction sectors with net growth in 23H1 loans decreased compared with the end of 22. Provision coverage increased by 21.59pct to 394.86% compared with 23Q1. Overdue loans increased by 600 million over the end of 22, accounting for 1.5% of the total loans and advances, an increase of 0.31pct over the end of 22, mainly due to the increase in overdue loans from individual corporate customers.
Investment advice. We predict that the EPS from 2023 to 2025 will be 1.10,1.21,1.32 yuan, and the growth rate of net profit will be 15.84%, 10.04% and 8.91%. According to the DDM model (see Table 2), we get the reasonable value of 7.68yuan; according to the PB-ROE model, we value the 2023E PB of the company at 0.75times (0.58 times for the comparable company), and the corresponding reasonable value is 6.99yuan. Therefore, the reasonable value range is 6.997.68yuan (corresponding to PE 6.356.98times in 2023,4.46times corresponding to PE in the same industry), maintaining a "better than the market" rating.
Risk hints: the solvency of enterprises has declined, asset quality has deteriorated significantly, and major changes have taken place in financial regulatory policies.