The Zhitong Finance App learned that Southwest Securities released a research report stating that it maintains the Boss Direct Hire - W (02076) “buy” rating, and that NON-GAAP net profit for 2023-25 is expected to be RMB 15.3, 21.2, and 3.1 billion yuan. It is believed that the company's active marketing during the World Cup will occupy the minds of large-scale users, and is optimistic that its deepening services for gold-collar and blue-collar users will help achieve the goal of increasing the number of users by 100 million in the next three years. The company announced 2023Q2 results. 23Q2 revenue increased 33.7% year on year to 1.49 billion yuan; net profit increased 188.3% year on year to 310 million yuan; adjusted net profit increased 121% year on year to 570 million yuan.
The main views of Southwest Securities are as follows:
The 23Q2 MAU reached a record high, reflecting strong demand for C-side job search and impressive growth in blue-collar workers.
In terms of MAU, the average monthly activity scale in Q2 increased by 64.5% year on year to 43.6 million people, a significant year-on-year increase, mainly driven by blue-collar workers, small and medium-sized enterprises, and low-tier cities. Specifically, Q2 continued the good user growth model of Q1, adding 14 million new and improved users in a single quarter. On the blue-collar side, recruitment demand for restaurants, hotels, tourism, health care, transportation, warehousing and logistics, mainly urban blue-collar workers and supply chain logistics blue-collar workers, recovered significantly, helping the company continue to sink into the market and penetrate blue-collar users; the share of blue collar revenue in Q2 increased further, exceeding 32%, and the revenue contribution of second-tier cities and below exceeded 60% for the first time.
The number of paying companies is also at a record high, with small and medium B contributing greatly.
By the end of 23Q2, the company's number of paying enterprise customers in the past 12 months had increased 18.4% year-on-year to 4.5 million, reaching a record high. The procyclical recruitment behavior of small and medium-sized enterprises is weaker than that of large enterprises. Small and medium-sized enterprises prefer to adjust recruitment activities in a timely manner according to real-time employment conditions, while large enterprises are more cautious in formulating recruitment plans. However, the demand for recruitment services of small and medium-sized enterprises is also weak compared to their ability to pay, and the share of small and medium-sized enterprise customers has increased, lowering the customer unit price to a certain extent.
The sales expense ratio has been significantly reduced, and future marketing activities are expected to remain stable.
Influenced by the 2022 World Cup sponsorship, the annual marketing expenses were 2 billion yuan, but the results of World Cup sponsorship were good. With no significant changes in market customer acquisition prices and marketing technology, the company gained very efficient vertical users this year. 23Q2 marketing expenses were 470 million, and the sales expenses rate was 31.7%, down 4 pp from the previous quarter, reaching a record low in a single quarter. It is mainly due to a decrease in market advertising expenses. Brand advertising is seasonal. Generally, there are more sales in the first quarter of every year, attracting customers during the spring recruitment window. It is expected that the third and fourth quarters of this year will also remain at a low level in the second quarter.
Risk warning: 1) the risk of increased competition in the online recruitment industry; 2) the risk of economic recovery falling short of expectations; 3) the risk of the blue-collar market falling short of expectations.