Zhitong Financial APP learned that Southwest Securities issued a research report that maintained KANZHUN LIMITED-W (02076) "buy" rating, and expected NON-GAAP net profit of 15.3,21.2 and 3.1 billion yuan in 2023-25. It is believed that the company's active marketing during the World Cup will occupy the minds of large-scale users, and is optimistic that its deepening service for gold-collar and blue-collar users will help achieve the goal of adding 100 million users in the next three years. The company issued a 2023Q2 performance announcement, 23Q2 revenue increased by 33.7% year-on-year to 1.49 billion yuan, net profit increased by 188.3% to 310 million yuan, and adjusted net profit increased by 121% to 570 million yuan.
The main points of Southwest Securities are as follows:
23Q2 MAU record high, reflecting the C-end job demand is strong, blue-collar growth is eye-catching.
In terms of MAU, the average number of monthly active users of Q2 increased by 64.5% year-on-year to 43.6 million, a significant increase, mainly driven by blue-collar workers, small and medium-sized enterprises and low-line cities. Specifically, Q2 continues the good user growth model of Q1, with 14 million new users added in a single quarter. In terms of blue-collar workers, recruitment demand for catering, hotels, tourism, beauty care, transportation and warehousing logistics, which are mainly urban blue-collar workers and supply chain logistics blue-collar workers, has recovered significantly, helping the company to continue to infiltrate into the sinking market and blue-collar users; Q2 blue-collar income has further increased to more than 32%, and second-tier and below cities have contributed more than 60% of income for the first time.
The number of paying enterprises is also at an all-time high, and the contribution of small and medium-sized B is greater.
As of the end of 23Q2, the number of paying corporate customers in the past 12 months increased by 18.4% year-on-year to 4.5 million, reaching an all-time high. The recruitment behavior of small and medium-sized enterprises is weaker than that of large enterprises, small and medium-sized enterprises are more inclined to adjust recruitment activities in time according to the real-time employment situation, while large enterprises are more cautious in making recruitment plans. However, the recruitment service demand of small and medium-sized enterprises is also weak compared with the ability to pay, and the proportion of customers of small and medium-sized enterprises has increased, pulling down the unit price of customers to a certain extent.
The rate of sales expenses has been significantly reduced, and future marketing activities are expected to remain stable.
Affected by the sponsored World Cup in 2022, the annual marketing cost is 2 billion yuan, but the World Cup sponsorship has achieved good results. Under the condition that the market price and delivery technology have not changed significantly, the company has obtained very efficient vertical users this year. The marketing cost of 23Q2 was 470 million, and the sales expense rate was 31.7%, down 4 pp from the same period last year, reaching a record low in a single quarter, mainly due to the reduction of market advertising expenses, brand advertising has a certain seasonality, generally more in the first quarter of each year, concentrated customers in the spring recruitment window, it is expected that the third and fourth quarters of this year will also remain at a relatively low level in the second quarter.
Risk Tips:1) the risk of increased competition in the online recruitment industry; 2) the risk that the economic recovery is not as expected; 3) the risk that the blue-collar market expansion is not as expected.